WHICH STATE WILL BE THE MOST PROSPEROUS?
Thursday, 27th September, 2007
WHICH STATE WILL BE THE MOST PROSPEROUS?
The question pre-supposes that states will continue in their present geographical form and will not be broken up. Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal are too large to be governed efficiently.
There are three additional points:
First, regional development is also a function of economic integration with immediate neighbours. This has begun to happen in the South.
Second, India’s future will depend on the Hindi heartland-Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Rajasthan.
Third, road networks are mainstreaming states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The problem lies in central India and the East.
Per capita income is the most obvious indicator of prosperity, but it is not the only one. Judging on the basis of current trends, Chandigarh will be the richest state of lndia. Delhi, or the National Capital Territory (NCT), will be next. This is not fair, one might argue. Chandigarh and Delhi are not quite states. And a state like Goa, which will also do well, is small. Among major states, we are talking about Maharashtra, followed by Gujarat. Haryana will follow, pulled up by the NCR factor. Punjab will come next, but will increasingly fall behind.
In the next category will be the southern clutch of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. However, two states-Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh-will break away from historical trends. These are the states to watch out for.
The percentage of the population below the poverty line is another indicator of prosperity. In the states mentioned, there will be poverty reduction. But one state, not listed above, will also have a very low ratio of poverty-Jammu & Kashmir.
Prosperity can also mean access to physical or social infrastructure. If one forgets about Chandigarh and Delhi, the best physical infrastructure will be found in Goa, Maharashtra and Punjab, with Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu following. If one talks about roads, Haryana, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh will be the best. In power and sewerage, Gujarat will lead the pack. In terms of social infrastructure, Kerala will still lead, followed by Tamil Nadu.
To restate the obvious, prosperity will be in the North, the West and the South. Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa and Bihar, in that order, are states I wouldn’t want to live in, even a decade or more from now.
