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Leader of the Opposition Lal Krishna Advani has climbed one more step in fulfilling his ambition of becoming the Prime Minister when National Democratic Alliance endorsed his candidature. Earlier, the BJP had announced its intention to fight the next Lok Sabha elections under the leadership of the former Deputy Prime Minister. The NDA decision disproves fears in certain circles that the endorsement of his candidature would not be a smooth affair. With health preventing Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee from playing an active role in politics, BJP leaders did not have much of a choice when they opted for Mr. Advani.   On his part, Mr. Advani also played his cards well by persuading his party to announce that he would be the prime ministerial, candidate just before the results in Gujarat were announced. It was a clever move to ward off any possible threat from Chief Minister Narendra Modi. It was Mr. Advani’s calculated attempt to make himself more ‘secular’ and thereby more endearing to the NDA allies that he made that statement about Mohammed Ali Jinnah while on a visit to Pakistan. He seems to have managed to win back the confidence of those sections of the Sangh Parivar who were upset with him on the Jinnah issue. Even so, he has a long way to go before achieving his ambition. It is true that the string of assembly elections in the recent past have been favourable to the BJP. But before the next general elections are due, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – ruled by the BJP – will go to the polls.     Rajasthan – ruled by the BJP – will go to the polls. By-election results from these states do not suggest that the voters are happy with these governments. Equally important, the BJP continues to be in bad shape in Uttar Pradesh which accounts for the largest number of seats in the Lok Sabha.   The NDA is no longer as cohesive and large as it used to be when Mr. Vajpayee was its leader. Of course, its decision on Mr. Advani provides clarity to the political situation. This will force the Congress to announce its own candidate for the post of prime minister. Last time it contested the elections without any such candidate. It was Mrs. Sonia Gandhi who nominated Dr. Manmohan Singh for the post. It remains to be seen whether the party [...]

Violence, political or otherwise, is part of life in Kenya. The irony is that Kenya is also one of the mature democracies in Africa: Multiparty elections are held regularly and even though politics is based on tribal divisions, the judiciary, Parliament and the vibrant Press apply correctives on the executive. With tolerance of corruption and violence as part of society, Kenya has found its own brand of democracy. The current tribal warfare on account of alleged rigging of elections had begun long before the polls were held. Even the meetings held for determining party candidates were marred by bloodshed. Having had to fight incessantly with wild animals for survival, physical battle for political survival is a natural extension of Kenyan life. Human life is heavily discounted there. Political calculations, rather than fear of further loss of human life, will bring about a compromise in the end. As the High Commissioner of India to Kenya, Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan happened to be with the Kenyan Foreign Minister in his office on the morning after the severe beating of a handicapped opposition leader. The newspapers that morning had carried graphic pictures of the incident. He could not but mention the incident to the minister. Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan thought that he would describe the incident as an unfortunate one, which was being exaggerated by the Press. He shocked Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan when he said: “He will be killed one of these days!” He added in good measure that violence is part of politics in Kenya and that people joined politics with full knowledge of the t attendant risks. He offered no apology, not even regret. Kenyan elections of 1995 left Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan with broken limbs and ribs as the opposition to President Moi thought that the Indians in Kenya should be given a message that they were not safe without the patronage of the opposition. Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan had ignored messages that Indians should make financial contributions to the opposition parties also, not just to those in power.   The best way to demonstrate this was to hit the Indian High Commissioner himself. After three assailants broke into their home and attacked his wife and Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan, President Moi said publicly that the Indian High Commissioner was the victim of political violence in the country. The opposition said promptly that Moi had done it to discredit [...]

The CPI (M)’s wish to form a third alternative at the Centre – minus the Congress and the BJP – is an effort aimed at preserving its separate identity. This effort, however, could end up strengthening the BJP and its allies because the public still sees the CPI (M) as a sympathiser of the Congress and the UPA, even though the Left party has opposed the Indo-US nuclear deal and some other decisions taken by the UPA.     Prakash Karat, the CPI (M)’s General. Secretary; is desperate to convey the impression that his party has never supported the UPA but agreed to do so on the promise of a common minimum programme and also because it wanted to isolate the communal forces led by the BJP. But he and his colleagues know that it is important to maintain the CPI (M)’s ideological profile in order to motivate its cadres. Karat is accustomed to taking the high moral ground on issues and his detractors have often accused him of pursuing an agenda that ignores the practical realities of politics. The CPI (M) knows that the general elections may be round the corner and if it persists with its threat of withdrawing its support from the UPA on the nuclear issue, it will find it very difficult to align itself with either the UPA or the NDA after the poll results are out. Therefore, it has little choice – but to float the idea of a third alternative, comprising regional parties. In fact, apart from qualifying as a national party by down by the Election Commission, the CPI (M) has also been reduced to a regional outfit. It has limited presence outside West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Its objective is to cobble up an alliance of the TDP, DMK, Samajwadi Party and National Conference, with the hope that some others like Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Ramvilas Paswan’s Janshakti Party would join it. But the question is whether such an alliance would provide the third alternative, which in electoral terms has never worked out in Indian politics as long-term option. Post-poll alliances are always fragile as V.P. Singh, H.D. Deve Gowda, I.K. Gujral and A.B. Vajpayee (during his 13-day stint) had discovered. It is unlikely that some of the parties that the CPI (M) maybe eyeing for a third alternative may join me hands before the elections are [...]