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Leader of the Opposition Lal Krishna Advani has climbed one more step in fulfilling his ambition of becoming the Prime Minister when National Democratic Alliance endorsed his candidature. Earlier, the BJP had announced its intention to fight the next Lok Sabha elections under the leadership of the former Deputy Prime Minister. The NDA decision disproves fears in certain circles that the endorsement of his candidature would not be a smooth affair.

With health preventing Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee from playing an active role in politics, BJP leaders did not have much of a choice when they opted for Mr. Advani.

On his part, Mr. Advani also played his cards well by persuading his party to announce that he would be the prime ministerial, candidate just before the results in Gujarat were announced. It was a clever move to ward off any possible threat from Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

It was Mr. Advani’s calculated attempt to make himself more ’secular’ and thereby more endearing to the NDA allies that he made that statement about Mohammed Ali Jinnah while on a visit to Pakistan. He seems to have managed to win back the confidence of those sections of the Sangh Parivar who were upset with him on the Jinnah issue. Even so, he has a long way to go before achieving his ambition. It is true that the string of assembly elections in the recent past have been favourable to the BJP. But before the next general elections are due, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan - ruled by the BJP - will go to the polls.

Rajasthan - ruled by the BJP - will go to the polls.

By-election results from these states do not suggest that the voters are happy with these governments. Equally important, the BJP continues to be in bad shape in Uttar Pradesh which accounts for the largest number of seats in the Lok Sabha.

The NDA is no longer as cohesive and large as it used to be when Mr. Vajpayee was its leader. Of course, its decision on Mr. Advani provides clarity to the political situation. This will force the Congress to announce its own candidate for the post of prime minister. Last time it contested the elections without any such candidate. It was Mrs. Sonia Gandhi who nominated Dr. Manmohan Singh for the post. It remains to be seen whether the party would like to fight the elections under Dr Manmohan Singh’s leadership or not. From the experience in Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, the Congress would have realised that not having an identifiable leader in an election is a disadvantage.

The year has begun on a somewhat strange note for our stock market. It is neither running away nor breaking down, simply gyrating in a range. Sessions have been volatile, mid, and small-caps have sold off while large caps have taken turns to hold the Nifty up. Almost running to stand still. The Nifty seems in a broad range of 6,100-6,350 while the broader market skims off some of its recent excesses.

It is important to understand the backdrop for such a market. There is an overload of material information for the market at this point, information that is pulling it in all directions. Globally, the cues from the US are disastrous, yet the expectations from the US Fed have moved swiftly from 25 to 50 and now even a 75 basis point cut in January. The crashing Dow may be affecting sentiment may but the prospect of much more liquidity coming this way is balancing that negative trigger. Take the primary market.

While the large IPOs of January and their runaway grey market quotes are bolstering investor sentiment, the fact that they have sucked away a lot of money from the secondary market is clearly visible in the stress on small-caps. Technically, the futures market is extended but the carrot of a good budget is keeping trader sentiment afloat. There is some discomfort among professional investors about the gay abandon with which lofty valuations are being ascribed to dreams and Excel sheets but a new breed of retail investors is neutralising this skepticism with the weight of money. Finally, there is the earnings season.

The market has one eye on all these varied pulls and pressures even as it focuses on earnings that are tumbling out every day. Add to this global commodity swings, the dollar, local interest rate expectations and one can begin to understand why the market is not making a decisive dart in either direction. The triggers are mixed and finely balanced, there is almost a violent equilibrium almost a violent equilibrium that has been struck out.

 Also, the valuation aspect is important. Having reached where we are with stock prices, it may be becoming a struggle to climb to even higher PE platforms without the crutch of delivered earnings growth, probably the reason why the market could be pausing to see the numbers before making its next move.

Violence, political or otherwise, is part of life in Kenya. The irony is that Kenya is also one of the mature democracies in Africa: Multiparty elections are held regularly and even though politics is based on tribal divisions, the judiciary, Parliament and the vibrant Press apply correctives on the executive. With tolerance of corruption and violence as part of society, Kenya has found its own brand of democracy.

The current tribal warfare on account of alleged rigging of elections had begun long before the polls were held. Even the meetings held for determining party candidates were marred by bloodshed.

Having had to fight incessantly with wild animals for survival, physical battle for political survival is a natural extension of Kenyan life. Human life is heavily discounted there. Political calculations, rather than fear of further loss of human life, will bring about a compromise in the end.

As the High Commissioner of India to Kenya, Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan happened to be with the Kenyan Foreign Minister in his office on the morning after the severe beating of a handicapped opposition leader. The newspapers that morning had carried graphic pictures of the incident. He could not but mention the incident to the minister. Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan thought that he would describe the incident as an unfortunate one, which was being exaggerated by the Press. He shocked Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan when he said: “He will be killed one of these days!” He added in good measure that violence is part of politics in Kenya and that people joined politics with full knowledge of the t attendant risks. He offered no apology, not even regret.

Kenyan elections of 1995 left Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan with broken limbs and ribs as the opposition to President Moi thought that the Indians in Kenya should be given a message that they were not safe without the patronage of the opposition. Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan had ignored messages that Indians should make financial contributions to the opposition parties also, not just to those in power.

The best way to demonstrate this was to hit the Indian High Commissioner himself. After three assailants broke into their home and attacked his wife and Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan, President Moi said publicly that the Indian High Commissioner was the victim of political violence in the country. The opposition said promptly that Moi had done it to discredit the opposition!

To avoid an explosive situation arising out of a sense of extreme insecurity, Mr. T. P. Sreenivasan made it out as though the whole incident was nothing but an act of burglary, though the intruders had stolen nothing from the house. He said that he had vowed to do everything possible for India Kenya friendship and the shedding of some blood turned out to be a part of the process.

Nothing could be better for the politicians to settle scores than an atmosphere of violence taken to be the norm. There are stories of Presidents disposing of inconvenient ministers and others by eliminating them. How do the Presidents control violence in the country if they themselves are not averse to resorting to violence to settle scores?

In India, we accept communalism in politics as a necessary evil, but in Kenya, tribalism is the very essence of politics. The revered Jomo Kenyatta was the leader of the largest tribe, the Kikuyu, and his successor should a1so have been from the same tribe, but the wily Moi, a Kalenjin, struck up an alliance with the Kikuyu and grabbed power. The election of Kibaki marked the return of the Kikuyu to power, but Moi escaped retribution by quickly reaching an understanding with Kibaki.

Kibaki’s challenger, Odinga, is a Luo, the second largest tribe in the country. Smaller tribes can share power only if they seek alliances with the larger ones. Before or after the elections, they have to seek viable alliances to grab a piece of the pie. Uncertainty and instability are essential ingredients of such a political mix.

In the latest round of violence and tribal warfare reports appeared to the effect that Indians in Kenya were being targeted. This may not be true in the context of the Kibaki vs. Odinga situation as the Indians are not particularly close to either. Indians have been constant targets of violence not because of any particular anti-Indian feeling, but because they are the richer of the species. They have bigger homes and more wealth for the looters and the thieves.

Kenyans, who serve in these homes, are witnesses to conspicuous consumption by Indians. Many homes resemble Hindi movie sets the Kenyans watch with envy every day. Many Indian are honest businessmen who have made money by the sweat of their brow. But envy and greed on the part of the Africans make them ready targets of violence.

Kenyan Indians have so many interests in the country that they consider a few robberies and deaths acceptable risks. They send the younger generation away to the West, but they themselves stay on to enjoy the fruits of their labour over the years. It must be mentioned, however, that there have been cases of deception, exploitation and sheer thuggery on the part of some Kenyan Indians.

As unprincipled partners of wealthy Africans, they have looted the country and fled to greener pastures. They spoil the name of India and Indians in Kenya and escape nemesis in other countries.

Much is being made of the Indian government’s lack of initiative to save the Indians in Kenya and to resolve the present conflict. Any foreign country can assist its citizens only by evacuating them in extreme emergencies. Kenya will not accept any plea for special treatment for Indians when the whole country is ablaze. Foreigners necessarily face such risks in any country and law should be the s.ame for all citizens and residents.

If there is no racial discrimination or racial hatred against the Indians as in the old South Africa and ‘ Rabuka’s Fiji, India can only offer advice to its citizens and people of Indian origin, not demand any special protection.

A national government of reconciliation and unity, with proportional representation for all parties seems to be the only way forward.

It appears that Archbishop Tutu, the master tactician and diplomat, appears to be heading in that direction. But tribalism and violence will not disappear and Kenyan Indians have to continue to live with the risks involved.

The CPI (M)’s wish to form a third alternative at the Centre - minus the Congress and the BJP - is an effort aimed at preserving its separate identity. This effort, however, could end up strengthening the BJP and its allies because the public still sees the CPI (M) as a sympathiser of the Congress and the UPA, even though the Left party has opposed the Indo-US nuclear deal and some other decisions taken by the UPA.

Prakash Karat, the CPI (M)’s General. Secretary; is desperate to convey the impression that his party has never supported the UPA but agreed to do so on the promise of a common minimum programme and also because it wanted to isolate the communal forces led by the BJP. But he and his colleagues know that it is important to maintain the CPI (M)’s ideological profile in order to motivate its cadres. Karat is accustomed to taking the high moral ground on issues and his detractors have often accused him of pursuing an agenda that ignores the practical realities of politics.

The CPI (M) knows that the general elections may be round the corner and if it persists with its threat of withdrawing its support from the UPA on the nuclear issue, it will find it very difficult to align itself with either the UPA or the NDA after the poll results are out.

Therefore, it has little choice - but to float the idea of a third alternative, comprising regional parties. In fact, apart from qualifying as a national party by down by the Election Commission, the CPI (M) has also been reduced to a regional outfit. It has limited presence outside West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Its objective is to cobble up an alliance of the TDP, DMK, Samajwadi Party and National Conference, with the hope that some others like Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Ramvilas Paswan’s Janshakti Party would join it.

But the question is whether such an alliance would provide the third alternative, which in electoral terms has never worked out in Indian politics as long-term option. Post-poll alliances are always fragile as V.P. Singh, H.D. Deve Gowda, I.K. Gujral and A.B. Vajpayee (during his 13-day stint) had discovered. It is unlikely that some of the parties that the CPI (M) maybe eyeing for a third alternative may join me hands before the elections are held. The tie-ups for such a formation will happen only if the big two - the Congress and the BJP - fail to make the grade.

After the polls, many of the players will try to align themselves with the winning combination and the CPI (M) may be left out in the cold. Its worries may increase if the party’s seat count goes down. This may be less than those won by an ally such as the Samajwadi Party, which would then act as the big brother. Another significant dimension to the CPI (M)’s desire for a third alternative is whether it will enjoy any credibility among the people. In West Bengal, the Left constituents don’t see eye to eye. For instance, the CPI has asked the CPI (M) not to ignore the other allies and run the Left Front government as a one-party government. There were differences over Nandigram and some other matters too.

So when the CPI (M) is unable to carry with it even those who are ideologically similar, then how will it go along with other parties which have their own regional agendas? Would it like to face the risk of allowing separatist forces and regional chauvinists over the national agenda? What will happen to Indian-State if various constituents of an alliance pull it in different directions? Will it not land the CPI (M) in a mess? Won’t its credibility be in question?

At this stage, it is also very difficult to think a central government without the Congress or BJP acting as the glue. The performance of both Congress and the BJP may have left a lot to be desired, but as large parties they are capable of providing stability. Also, they would ensure that regional interests do not override national interests.

If one traces the origins of the third alternatives have seen till date, one can give the example of 1989, when the formation of the V.P. Singh government with the BJP and the CPI (M) supporting it from outside had anti-Congressism as main motivating factor. In 1996, the Deve Gowda government was formed to keep BJP out. But both the experiments failed to achieve the desired result and the country faced three quick elections (1996, 1998 and 1999), before some stability was achieved.

True, the Congress dislodged the government in 1998, but it was unable to cobble up majority required to provide an alternative to the BJP and paid the price. The CPI (M)’s ideological purity is a myth. In 1967, 1977 and 1989, it joined hands - indirectly or directly - with the BJP, which is often flaunted as its No. 1 enemy. On the nuclear deal, the two ideologically opposite parties are coming in the way of any kind of consensus.

The CPI (M)’s behaviour has prompted some Left leaders outside the party to think that a third alternative at this stage will only help the BJP to rejuvenate itself. For them, the fight against communalism is foremost and any deviation from it could put this agenda on the backburner.

Today, public support of the Left is low because most tl1ink that it is ‘bullying’ the UPA. It is true that the Left wants to keep its constituency intact by identifying itself with the pro-people measures. They claim that they were initiated by the UPA due to the Left’s pressure. It also spared no efforts to attack the Congress even during the polls against the BJP in Gujarat. Why? Because a weak Congress would need the Left’s help to sustain it.

The events that are going to unfold till the Budget Session would determine whether the national polls will be held this year or the next. Similarly, the posturing of all parties, including the CPI (M), will keep the voters guessing about their real agenda.

Last week proved as the most eventful week on the stock markets. What started as a bloodbath on the street ended with a solid recovery? The markets witnessed unprecedented volatility last week, with losses and recoveries of a 1,000 points becoming par for the course. The magnitude of the volatility could be gauged from the fact that the last week was witness to both the highest ever single-day loss as well as single-day gain on an absolute basis on the Sensex. Bears in the end triumphed, pulling the Sensex (18,361) down by a little more than 3 per cent and the Nifty (5,383) down by nearly 6 per cent.

Credit crisis in the US and fears of a US recession caused bloodbath on the domestic bourses at the onset of week with share prices falling like nine pins. Margin calls created havoc on the bourses in causing a steep decline in share prices that was initially triggered by a setback in global markets and selling by foreign institutional investors. Reserve Bank’s review of its monetary policy is due this Tuesday, which would set the tone for markets.

After a surprise 75 basis point cut in Fed rate by the US central bank, market men expect a 25 basis point cut in repo rate by the RBI. Though the corporate results have been in line with expectation, any adverse news from overseas may further dampen the sentiment. OnMobile provides value added services (VAS) in the telecommunications space and software products in India with an expanding international presence, particularly in the emerging markets in Asia. It has a broad range of applications delivered by its carrier customers (telecom service providers) to their end-user subscribers.

These products include ring-back tones, voice portals, ringtone downloads, subscription manager, contests, music messaging, on-device client software, mobile radio, dynamic voicemail, voice SMS, and missed call alerts.

OnMobile was incorporated as Onscan Technologies India Pvt. Ltd. in September 2000 by its promoter OnMobile Systems Inc (OMSI) that is a startup firm of Infosys to develop telecommunications software platforms and applications or the mobile telecommunications industry. Subsequently, it was renamed as OnMobile Global Ltd (OMGL) in August 2007. Its customers include the major telecommunications carriers or operators in India such as Bharti Airtel, BSNL, Idea, R-com, Tata Teleservices and Vodafone Essar.

Due to competitive industry dynamics, mobile tariffs’ have been falling and there has been pressure on the average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) of telecom operators. Thus, telecom operators would be looking for more VAS revenue at very little incremental capital expenditure. This is a potential lever to counter the trend of falling ARPUs. It will result in decent growth opportunity for OnMobile as VAS will have higher growth trajectory on lower base and increasing acceptability.

The initial public offer (IPO) is priced very aggressively at the higher end of Rs.450 which discounts its annualised 2008 earnings?  Rs 10.3 approximately 45 times. To put things in right perspective, investors must also keep in mind that the company has been growing at 100 per cent compounded growth at net profit level for the last three years. In our view, investor with risk appetite may apply at cut off with a two year perspective.