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Can you guess how many Punjabi youths are at present under training in the Indian Military Academy at Dehra Dun? This question was posed to the audience by Punjab Governor and UT Administrator General S. F. Rodrigues (retd) at a function held in Chandigarh recently. He said Punjab Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal, who had gone to Debra Dun, came to him expressing his concern about the low presence of Punjabi youths in the academy.

The audience, though surprised over the unexpected question, made their guesses-some said 20, some 100 and others put it at 50. However, all the guesses were wrong. . The figure was as low as five out of 1,800 cadets going tinder training, the Governor said, adding that the concern of Mr. Manpreet Badal was genuine.

He emphasised the need for imparting quality education to the youth to compete in life. He said it was the duty of educational institutions to prepare and motivate the youth to join the armed forces.

Hence, in order to motivate and prepare the Punjab youth for the armed forces, government and PSU competitions through agencies like C- PYTE (Centre for Punjab Youth Training and Employment) and the police, the Punjab Government has constituted the State Vocational Training, Employment and HRD Mission (Technical, Professional, General) to function across universities, professional institutions and departments for vocational training and identify core sectors in the state in the primary, secondary tertiary sectors and to ensure qualify human resource development by various capacity building/training establishment/ institutes in the state.

The mission will also collaborate with industry to provide employment for the trained youth in Punjab through employment fairs and career counseling. It will also ensure mechanism or a meaningful and close interaction between industry and training educational institutes for the benefit of all stake holders.

It will lay down basic norms for institutions to offer vocational training courses, including but not limited, to the qualification and skill/competency of instructors/trainers/teachers, infrastructure required, evaluation and examination certifications norms, etc., and placement norms, if any. The mission will prepare the framework for the opening of new vocational institutions in emerging trades on different models, including the franchise model. This may also generative revenue for additional education and training work in institutions.

The mission is expected to fine tune the existing educational technical education institutions/framework or job-oriented courses and vocational education and training programmes to match the requirement projected by job surveys by modifying the existing course curricula in line with the requirements of market or adding new vocational courses/modules in universities, deemed universities and affiliated/attached colleges, engineering colleges, management institutes, other professional institutes, polytechnics, ITIs, vocational institutions, senior secondary schools, vocational schools and private institutions of repute which are willing to adopt the curricula.

Its function will also be the identification and approval of new job-oriented courses and vocational education and training programmes as per the requirements of job market and offer the same at the existing educational institutions in the state at various levels, with some assured job placement/self-employment. It will get developed the detailed curricula and course material on outsourcing basis or with in-house expertise wherever possible and also identify vocational education and training programmes to remove skills and competencies caps in the existing education and training.

The mission will coordinate the activities of vocational education in schools, colleges and other professional and nonprofessional institutions. It will also coordinate the implementation of various skill development initiatives (SDIs), vocational training implementation in the state; facilitate the delivery of various vocational training programmes/modules through public private partnership models.

It will work on the guidelines for fee norms for vocational training institutions, which could be linked to the percentage of students placed in jobs after the successful completion of the training. It will coordinate opening of vocational and IT college wings in Punjab colleges and institutions. It will ensure the implementation of various policy interventions by the government from time to time. As a first step, it will make it compulsory for all the institutions and selected schools to establish at least 20 per cent seats on vocational training by additions/conversions.

Headed by the Principal Secretary of Technical Education and Industrial Training, the Mission will have the Secretary of Employment Generation and Training as vice-chairman. It will also have co-opted members of industry, economists, vocational training experts and principals of colleges.

Sixteen months after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited the Vidarbha region in Maharashtra and a week before another scheduled visit, a new set of dark figures on farmers’ suicides confronts us. According to the National Crime Records Bureau, farm suicides rose significantly in 2006 with 17,060 agriculturists killing themselves. Maharashtra, which happens to be the home state of Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, tops the list with 4,453 farmer suicides in 2006. This is the worst figure recorded “in any year for any state” since the bureau first started keeping tabs on such suicides.

The previous worst 4,147 in 2004 - was also in Maharashtra. Other states that follow Maharashtra are Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.  If these figures are shocking, it would be worthwhile to remember that these are just ‘reported’ figures of suicides that have been linked to agrarian distress.

Many cases go unreported because of the flawed counting process - more deaths mean that the State has to dole out more compensation. Another report published this week states that 11 more farmers have killed themselves in Vidarbha, taking the toll to 74 in January 2008 itself.

Other than these ‘hotspots’, incidents of farmers’ suicides and agrarian distress have come regularly from Punjab, the grain bowl of India, and the Bundelkhand region, which has been facing drought for the last four years. In Bundelkhand, the Janata Dal (United) alleges that as many as 203 farmers have committed suicide till November 2007.

The PM’s visit to Gondia, one of the affected districts in Vidarbha, next week is likely to be marked by a review of the economic package announced by him in 2006 to bail out debt-ridden farmers.

But no review will be enough, no new package will be adequate, unless and until it meets the demands of the affected and relief reaches on time. Most of the money that the PM had announced went towards paying for irrigation dues and waiver of interests. No direct relief reached the farmers. The farmers’ main wish - total waiver of debts - remained unfulfilled. That our rural credit system has failed is an old story. And, no entrepreneur - and the Indian farmer must be considered one -can survive without an adequate cash flow.

Along with credit, crop insurance needs to be extended from the block to the village level, so that in case of a crop failure, a village as a whole can absorb the shock. The collateral damage of agrarian distress is manifold. Each family sinking into the quagmire means later generations also facing a bleak future. Migrations and social tensions follow Even if this is tackled by the State apparatus, the question of the country’s food security cannot be wished away. Asked whether he would like to become a farmer, one of the children of a Punjab farmer protesting in Delhi said that he would not like to because it’s ‘risky‘. Truer words were never spoken. A scary thought for a nation that has to feed over a billion mouths.

Soon the Indian Navy will host a seminal event termed the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) in New Delhi. Heads of navies and delegations from 28 countries in the region, including Pakistan, have been invited to present their views. Not all might be able to come for different reasons, but even if many do as they are likely to, it will be an occasion of great significance.

Over a period of three days, the invitees will discuss matters of mutual interest concerning cooperation at sea. For the last 10 years, the Navy has been conducting the Milan series of biennial meetings, which involve maritime forces of neighbours in the eastern seas. It also hosted an International Fleet Review in Mumbai 2001 for which ships and delegations from 21 countries showed up. So, the IONS is a logical follow up and a timely step in the right direction.

Unlike the other two major oceans of the world - the Pacific and Atlantic, in which 75 per cent of all seaborne commerce is consigned to or comes from their own regional states - the situation in the Indian Ocean is very different. Here, 75 per-cent of an trade moving at sea is consigned to or comes from countries external to the region, and more than $200 billion of it is in the form of oil and gas. The US is the largest importer of Gulf energy followed by China and Japan. France procures more than half of its oil and gas from this region.

It is not surprising, therefore, that these countries, though external to the region, have important stakes. The US maintains large military, mainly maritime, forces in the Indian Ocean. France has forces stationed in the Reunion Islands in the southern Indian Ocean and has access to a very large Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where it exercises sovereign rights over exploration and exploitation of undersea resources. This 24/7 military presence of externals, which cannot be wished away, has its own impact on the political dynamics of the region. In earlier times, it was the maritime power of countries like Great Britain, France, Portugal and the Netherlands which enabled them to colonise and then rule over almost the entire Indian Ocean littoral.

Of the regional countries, few can lay any pretensions to maritime power. To our west, Pakistan, Iran and South Africa have competent but small navies; others are merely coastal forces. Eastwards, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia have navies but none of them can really be said to be sea-going. India alone maintains maritime forces - the Navy and the Coast-Guard which can be considered to have credible ocean-going capability.

Therefore, if at all a regional maritime nation has to make an effort to coordinate cooperative engagement at sea, it has to be India.

Why cooperation is needed at all is a question that a layman might ask. In the security environment today and likely to be prevalent in the years to come, threats of conflict between nation-states have dwindled sharply; on the other hand, those from non-state entities are increasing. Groups like Al-Qaeda in the Gulf, the Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines and the Jemaah Islamia in Indonesia have already been involved in terrorist acts at sea. More of these, not less, should be expected.

Whether in narrow and constricted waterways like the Malacca Straits in the east or in the Gulf of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden in the west, or in ports, piracy and maritime terrorism constitute a real threat. The scenario is trans-national; a ship belonging to an owner in one country is often registered in another whose flag it flies, and its crew has people of several different nationalities. When such a vessel is attacked or hijacked, it has on board cargo belonging to many countries. After being hijacked somewhere, it is taken to another region that might be quite far away and then deployed in unlawful activity elsewhere. Prevention of such crimes at sea and apprehension of hijacked vessels which can potentially be used for terrorism can only be ensured if there is close coordination between several agencies within a country and between countries.

Safety at sea and search and rescue are areas of common concern as also environmental degradation. Maritime forces have to be the lead players in promoting such coordination as they are the ultimate implementers. The interface should cover an exchange of visits by ships and people, discussions at professional seminars and conferences and joint exercises and patrols. Some interoperability is important as without it standard operating profiles cannot be developed. Only then can the desired confidence arid trust be built.

India’s own interests at sea are quite substantial and increasing rapidly. Nearly 70 per cent of all our energy imports are from the Gulf and this dependence may reach 80 per cent or more by 2020, making us the third largest importer after the US and China. Almost all our overseas trade, about $320 billion this year which is likely to reach $500 billion in 2010 and over $1.5 trillion by 2020 - is moved by sea.

In addition, energy exploitation going on in our offshore waters is spread over more than 50,000 square kilometers, and this area is likely to double in the next 15 years. The assets involved in this activity are extensive and represent very sizeable and critical national investment. Safety of these maritime interests, from state and non-state actors, is imperative as it impacts directly on the nation’s economic growth.

As India’s economy grows, so will its maritime interests. Conversely, unless these are safeguarded, economic growth is certain to be compromised. Taking a proactive lead role in affairs at sea in our region is, therefore, a desirable initiative, and the Navy and the government must be complimented in j moving in this direction. One must wish that the forthcoming IONS achieves all the objectives that have been set before it and becomes a promoter of more active cooperation at sea in our region.

In all the market turbulence of January and the hype around Central bank meetings, this earnings season got sort of smothered. Now that the more obvious triggers have played out, one has a little more time to reflect on how earnings shaped up this quarter. While it wasn’t a bad quarter, it wasn’t the best we have seen in recent times. The aggregated growth numbers for all companies may not paint a very gloomy picture but a closer look does reveal a few warts.

Other income played a fairly important role this time. My guess, as I haven’t been able to collate all the numbers yet, is that earnings growth stripped of other income will be close to the 15 per cent mark. While that’s not terrible, it isn’t spectacular either. But that’s all a jumbled mass of statistics which hides more than it reveals. What is a bit more disappointing is that there were hardly any positive surprises, the steroid that is necessary to support expanding valuations. I don’t think there will be more than one or two earnings upgrades for the Sensex stocks, if that. Only the odd L&T etc. On the other hand there could be a few downgrades for stocks like Hindalco and Reliance energy Overall, for the large cap universe there may not be significant revisions, upward or downward but for midcaps there have been many more disappointments in this quarter compared to the last. Liquid names like PTC, IDB, Voltas, Ispat, JSW steel,India cement, Dena bank and Escorts all fell short of expectations. There were many more. This is worrying.

The results aren’t bad enough to start panicking but one need to be very watchful. Topline growth is moderating and margins are showing some strain under raw material and cost pressures. In a difficult global environment, if earnings start getting downgraded in 2008, that will raise the risk of stocks getting derated. The external risks, of global slowdown and liquidity withdrawals, while very real are less intrinsic to core stock prices over a longer time frame. If indeedIndia has to outperform in a sluggish equity environment, earnings will have to show more sparkle. Having been spoilt for the last three years with continuous earnings surprises and upgrade, the market may have lost it’s tolerance for lacklustre numbers.