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Archive for March, 2008

THE TRAGEDY OF A QUEEN

Monday, 31st March, 2008

March 31, 1972. It was Good Friday. The world was mourning the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. Inside a city hospital, she screamed, “I don’t want to die,” clawing at the tubes surrounding her. Then she slumped in the arms of her sister Madhu. Meena Kumari, born Mehjabeen Bano, was dead at the age of 39.

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Addiction to alcohol killed her. It is said that she had started drinking, while she was still married to Kamal Amrohi. Amrohi’s German cinematographer, Joseph Wirsching, on being told about a pleurisy patch on her lungs, had recommended a shot of brandy before dinner.
Within months she was hooked. On separating from Amrohi, she hit the bottle with a vengeance. Amrohi and she had married on February 15, 1962. He was already married and a father of three. She had come across a magazine photograph of his and had resolved that he was the man of her dreams.
Meena Kumari and the movie producer-director were together for 12 years. One day, she went to Ranjit Studio to shoot for Pinjre Ki Panchhi and didn’t return home. The press went to town about how the pinjre ki panchhi had flown.
Amrohi blamed her relatives and producers for the split. He claimed they wanted him out of the way, so they’d get a share of her earnings and dates.
Her family blamed him. Her sister Madhu asserted that for him she was a “saleable commodity and not a wife.” There were also rumours of ill-treatment, which Amrohi’s son Tajdar denies vehemently, insisting that the split was the result of a clash of egos. “She wanted him to come and manao her,” Tajdar says. But Meena had refused to open the door. “He never went back and she never came back,” he sighs.
After leaving Amrohi, Meena drowned her sorrows in alcohol. There were other men including Dharmendra, Saawan Kumar Tak and Gulzar.
Even her career was nose diving with the arrival of younger heroines. Her drinking had badly damaged her liver. She was taken to London and Switzerland for treatment. The doctors gave her six months to live.
Back home, she started settling her debts. The servants were paid off. She made peace with her estranged sister, Madhu, whom she hadn’t spoken to for two years.
Now there was only Pakeezah to complete. Sunil Dutt orchestrated a meeting with Kamal Amrohi. Not much was said, but streams of tears were shed.
In March, ‘64, when Meena had left home Pakeezah was more than halfway complete. Five years and 12 days after she walked away, she reported again on the sets of Pakeezah. Amrohi greeted her with a token payment of a gold guinea and the promise that he’d make her look as beautiful as the day she had started the film.
Fourteen years after it was launched Pakeezah was complete. Kamal Amrohi had shot 35,000 feet of film of which 14,000 feet was retained. The film opened on February 20, ‘72.

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It was a disaster. Five weeks later, Meena Kumari passed away. After her death the collections of Pakeezah doubled…Tripled… Quadrupled… The film went on to celebrate a golden jubilee. Her confidante, Nadira, had recalled, “I bathed and dressed her for the last rites. Without money or work, Meena would not have been able to face life. It’s better that God took her away.”

Living with inflation

Sunday, 30th March, 2008

The wholesale price index (WPI) has climbed to an 11 month high of 5.92 %. If the high international oil prices had been fully passed through, the inflation rate would have gone way beyond 7 %. The WPI has clearly entered a highly sensitive zone, politically speaking. As the opposition parties begin to up the ante on food prices, the government’s focus is expected to remain firmly on bringing inflation under control. But there is only so much the government can do if global prices of food, oil and other commodities are firming up.

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You can ban edible oil exports, drop import duties on palm oil; put an export tax on steel, but there is a limit to which India can insulate itself from global price trends. Every growing economy is facing these supply constraints. Food supply cannot increase substantially in the near term. Oil prices have been rising for quite a while. The inflation rate for manufactures too has climbed to 5.4%. In fact, few realise core inflation in India has been above 4.5 % for quite some time now.
Even in China the Producer Price Index, representing manufacturing prices, has been above 6 %. So we have a situation where prices of food, oil and manufactures are rising together. Normally food prices tend to rise more as we head into the summer months. For the UPA government this is not good news as it faces several assembly elections in the latter half of the year followed by general elections next year.
The best it can hope for is a good Rabi crop and a good monsoon which may somewhat dampen inflationary expectations. Paradoxically, a slowdown in the economy may help in moderating the prices of manufactures. The UPA would rather prefer a more moderate growth rate with inflation under control. For businesses in general the current price rise could not have come at a worse time. Small businesses reeling from high interest rates were hoping the RBI would supplement the finance minister’s fiscal effort by a small cut in the bank lending rate.

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The finance minister too had indicated his bias for a cut some time ago. But with the inflation rate at 5.92%, and expectations of further rise in food prices, it is doubtful whether the central bank will answer the prayers of small manufacturers anytime soon.

FINANCIAL REFORMS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION

Saturday, 29th March, 2008

Less than eight months ago when the Planning Commission set up a committee under Raghuram Rajan to suggest next generation financial sector reforms it could not possibly have envisaged how incongruous it would be to talk of reform when government is engaged in the very antithesis of reform: loan waivers. In such a scenario, the committee’s recommendations can be best described as an eloquent reminder of the contrast between ‘what is’ and ‘what could be’.

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To its credit, the committee seems to have a keen awareness of the political economy considerations that govern any reform process in India. Hence, unlike previous committees on financial sector reform, the Gen-Next committee has taken care to suggest a broad macroeconomic framework within which its recommendations need to be anchored. This is important because many of the reforms needed to transform the financial sector into one befitting a 21st century economic powerhouse that India hopes to become will be pointless unless they are undertaken in tandem with more broad-sweep macro-economic reforms.

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Any attempt to develop the bond market, for instance, is futile as long as we do not have a risk-free yield curve. And a risk-free yield curve will not emerge as long as government borrowing is so large that it can only be met by mandatory preemptions like the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) backed by some careful priming of the market. The reason is that corporate bonds are priced off the risk -free sovereign yield curve - corporates pay a premium over the sovereign (government) for comparable maturity, the precise premium being a function of their credit - rating. Hence the starting point for the development of a corporate bond market - the emergence of a risk-free yield curve - is that government must learn to manage its finances better (read, borrow less). In other words, the importance of a sound fiscal policy cannot be overestimated.

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If fiscal policy is important, monetary policy is no less so, as it has wide ramifications for the financial sector. Here, the committee’s suggestion that monetary policy should target inflation rather than the exchange rate is based on sound logic. The events of the past few months have shown, quite convincingly, that targeting the exchange rate does not work. Far better than to use monetary policy to deliver what it is best suited to deliver- price stability; leaving exchange rates to the market.

Moving from the macro-economic framework to the more specific proposals, these are largely unexceptionable. The idea of freeing up branch and ATM (automated teller machines) licensing and easing entry nom1S into’ the banking sector will find few opponents.

Anyone who has seen the transformation in the telecom and civil aviation sectors will testify to the benefits of greater competition. However, it is less dear whether this objective will be best served by allowing more local area banks. It is increasingly becoming apparent that the benefits of competition and even of greater financial inclusion can be better achieved by bigger-sized banks that enjoy both economies of scale and have access to cutting edge technology solutions.

On the issue of revitalising PSBs, the committee has, perhaps, been excessively constrained by socio-political ground realities. As long as government remains majority owner, PSBs will forever be condemned to compete with one hand tied behind their backs. No amount of talk about improving the quality of corporate governance is going to make an iota of difference. There is no alternative to privatising banks if we are serious about improving their performance; the longer we beat around the bush looking for alternatives when there are none, the more time we lose. If countries like Pakistan and China can reduce/abolish state ownership of banks, so, can we if we are serious about next generation reforms.

On regulation, the committee has done well to steer dear of the ’single versus multiple regulators’ debate and suggest a financial sector oversight agency along with distinct sectoral regulators. This is akin to what we have at present in the form of the High Level Co-ordination Committee on Financial and Capital Markets. The oversight agency would merely formalise the existing arrangement; but with one key difference. All regulators would be on, an equal footing and the present anomalous situation with the RBI governor first among equals would give way to a more democratic, and hopefully, more efficient one.

Progressive expansion of ‘priority sectors’ has led to a situation where the priority sector obligation has not served the purpose for which it is intended - wider access to credit for the financially excluded. The committee’s carrot -and-stick approach is, therefore, an improvement over today’s toothless system I where not only is there no penalty for noncompliance but compliance is a bit of a farce.

For the rest, the committee has done a commendable job though its silence on cooperative banks is a bit puzzling. The full report is not yet in the public domain; hopefully we will I’ find some suggestions on revitalising tins sector, given that it is, perhaps, the best way to ensure financial inclusion.

 

 

BOLLYWOOD IS ENJOYING THE BOOM.

Saturday, 29th March, 2008

It was the summer of 1988. A young man keen to become a writer and director was doing the rounds of producers in Mumbai, walking into offices that thousands had walked into before, and thousands would later. His name was Salman Khan and he was about to become one of India’s biggest movie stars.

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Not too far away in the same neighborhood of Bandra, Aamir Khan had just zoomed to new stardom. Two other New Delhi men, outsiders in Bollywood, were preparing to begin their journey as actors. They were called Shah Rukh Khan and Akshay Kumar. Years later, those four men are still the crown of the small clique of stars of Hindi cinema. But the whirlwind of change in Bollywood has not left these icons of entertainment - untouched. They are adapting as well.

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Actors are turning producers. Actors are turning directors. Actors are also writing films. They are turning businessmen - devising new, innovative ways to own the intellectual property of their films, from ownership of the film print to the ancillary rights like those related to the Internet and mobile phones. They are working with new directors and themes. 

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“There was a time when we ourselves never used to watch bur own movies. But actors are now thinking - what to do next, what’s the kind of film I want. The game has become big … Audiences have changed. They have become impatient.” Salman Khan told in an interview.

“For an average filmmaker, it is very difficult to get a hero on board,” said director and music composer Vishal Bhardwaj. Bhardwaj has no such obstacles though- he is part of Bollywood’s elite league of directors who most actors and producers are desperate to work with.

That, too, is a reflection of the new Bollywood, with top actors keen to do unconventional themes with trend-setting directors like Bhardwaj. “Fees in Bollywood are slowly inching towards Hollywood levels - if a Shah Rukh Khan does a film he will take at least US$6 to US$7 million - in comparison, Johny Depp will charge US$20 million,” Bhardwaj said. “Every actor has his own production house and if you have to cast them, you have to co-produce or work for those production houses.” The top names - Amir Khan, Shah Rukh Khan, Suneil Shetty, Ajay Devgan, and most recently, Sanjay Dutt and Saif Ali Khan - all have or are set to launch their own production companies. Salman Khan - whose brother Sohail Khan is a producer thinks it is a bad idea. “Being a producer is a different thing altogether,” he said.

The top actors are rumored to charge between Rs. 25 crores and Rs. 30 crores per film, with other benefits to follow. But there are few options the shortage of saleable actors is so acute that there is a mad scramble whenever there is a new, promising face. Director Sriram Raghavan’s Johny Gaddaar threw up a new actor - Neil Nitin Mukesh, who was immediately snapped up by production houses, even though there are reportedly no scripts yet for most of them. “We are short of talent. We are surviving on a whole lot of incompetence. You cannot make films against gravity,” Salman Khan says.

Ram Mirchandani, senior vice-president with UTV Motion Pictures, one of India’s major production houses, is one of the men trying to push forward change. “The star system has got its own challenges. There are no more than 10 stars in Bollywood. And since there aren’t too many, prices have gone up,” he said. “The economies have changed and the waiting period has gone up.”At the same time, Mirchandani points out, many of these stars can be relied upon to steer a film through its crucial first week.

But the dynamics of star power in Bollywood still begin and end with male actors, a phenomenon that frustrates acclaimed directors like Sudhir Mishra. “This (boom) will last only as long as the realization among the promoters that the big star films is making big bucks. There is an absence of release-ability for non-star cast films,” said Mishra.

“In a country as huge as India, what I fmd ridiculous is that you cannot make a film with a female star. You can keep blaming the producers but the audience has something to answer for,” he said.

 

 

A New Model for Sustainability

Saturday, 29th March, 2008

Milton Friedman wrote in the last century, “There is one and only one social responsibility of business - to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits.” Since there are many global problems which are continuously growing to impact our living atmosphere like growing global population’ changing climate and mounting stress on natural resources, business leaders who continue to define social responsibility so narrowly risk leading their businesses and our planet - down an increasingly unsustainable path. There is completely new set of expectations in the 21st century. The earth is no longer sufficient to profitably provide a quality product or service. Thus, we need a new business model that puts business in a broader context. Beyond making a profit, serving a market and obeying the law, a successful business must, do three things at a minimum.

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The first thing, there should be a consistent support from the business for the sustainability of the communities it serve.  A company of 21st century should understand that if the communities which it serves to are not sustainable. A company’s sustainability work, however, should be relevant to its core business, or it will lose the support of its shareowners. As has been the case in the past, it cannot be seen as a philanthropic effort related to the CEO’s personal agenda for example, At the Coca -Cola Company, water is the main ingredient in all our beverages. Lack of public access to dean water is a serious problem in many communities.

Next on the second phase, there should be a collaboration between the businesses and the government and further with the civil society. Our planet is facing an urgent and complex challenge, which in fact is for government, business or NGOs to solve alone. Working together, however, we can create a multiplier effect that helps build sustainable communities and a more sustainable planet. The interconnected triad of business, government and civil society is key to accelerating sustainable development. Strong partnerships are already being formed around key social issues.

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On the third stage, the business which is in both- perception and reality- successful should be functioning as a part of every community in which it operates. By creating jobs and enabling business we contribute to alleviating poverty in the communities we serve.

The health of living communities and the planet we live in has its future attached with the future of a 21st century company. There are leaders who consider sustainability work to be in a company’s “enlightened self interest“. I disagree. In ways that will determine our ability to achieve consistent, global growth and profitability, it is quite literal self interest.

 

 

Basketcase awards

Friday, 28th March, 2008

The political cycle is certainly alive and kicking in the Indian context. As elections draw closer, pressures are rising by the day to step up aam admi giveways to ensure that the UPA government can score at the hustings. If the Rs 60,000 crore farm loan waiver was targeted at rural vote banks, the Sixth Pay Commission award, the report of which is likely to be submitted to the government next week, targets the urban middle-class, especially the 3.9 million-strong regular central government employees. According to reports, they are set to receive a substantial raise of up to 52 per cent of what they are getting now. The new scales are to be effective from January 1, 2006.

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Clearly, political rather than economic considerations will dictate the timing of e the UPA government’s decision to implement the Sixth Pay Commission’s recommendations. If the initial beneficiaries are central government employees, those employed in state governments will also demand parity in salaries. Although rapid economic growth during the last four years resulted in revenue buoyancy, the Centre’s finances are not entirely in order. Although the finance minister has claimed that there is enough fiscal headroom to meet the additional burden of 30,000 crore year, the tab will have to be picked up by the next government at the Centre (like the loan waiver.

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What are the fiscal consequences of this measure? Let us take the Fifth Pay Commission’s experience for a sense of at perspective. This was constituted in April 1994 and implemented in 1997 and resulted in the government’s fiscal deficit, a measure which indicates borrowings, increasing in each of the five years thereafter, hitting a peak of 9.9 percent of the gross domestic product in al 2001-02. Which is why even the official e- Economic Survey for 2005-06 issued a warning that “there is need to exercise caution to avoid a repetition of a similar deterioration in the medium term”.

The Fifth Pay Commission award was considered the biggest shock to the government’s finances during the last decade. The Sixth Pay Commission’s experience is unlikely to be any different. What makes the current prospect appear more daunting is that both the Centre and state governments are committed to adhere to the discipline of fiscal responsibility legislation. With electoral pressures mounting to step up populist spending with subsidies on oil and fertilisers likely to be higher than budgeted, where indeed is the fiscal headroom to fund the Sixth Pay Commission award this year?

WHO WAS JODHA BAI?

Friday, 28th March, 2008

Alal and Jodha have a certain lilt, certain chemistry. They’re Hrithik and Aishwarya after all. Not so, Akbar and Heera Kanwar, Jodha, Harka Bai, Maryam Zamani….or any other name. It’s a Bollywood movie, for Chris sakes, not a docu-drama. So, directors have a generous artistic licence. That’s why there never was any protest at the historicity of the K-serial-like royal household presented in K Asif’s Mughal-e-Azam with grandee father and mother (Akbar and ‘Jodhabai’), feckless son (Salim, aka Jehangir) and misunderstood angel (Anarkali) etc.

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We happily accepted the mummy-daddy characters played by the portly Durga Khote and Prithviraj Kapoor, but now want poor Ashutosh Gowarikar to prove the authenticity of the smoldering protagonists of the eponymous film Jodhaa-Akbar. Do we think real romancing couples actually warble their love or anxiety to the accompanied of background music? Of course not; that only happens in Bollywood. Well, so does the Jalal and Jodha love duet. Unfortunately, the truth for those interested in knowing it - is vague and therefore open to interpretations. So there are enough historians -like statistics to prove or disprove anything. The best bet, then, is to take the movie at (pretty) face value and enjoy it for the costumes (by Neeta Lulla, modem cocktail versions now on sale too) and the jewellery (by Tanishq, also pan of the merchandising blitz) and maybe for the cinematography. As for history, naah, don’t both- , because you’ll emerge more confused.

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But if you insist….

Let’s get the bare facts straight first. Jodha, Harka, Maryam, whatever, wasn’t Akbar’s first wife. That honour went to his first cousin, Ruqaiya, the daughter of his uncle Hindal. She never had children but Akbar obviously held her in high regard as she was entrusted later with the upbringing of his infant grandson Khurram, later Emperor Shahjehan. Jodha, Harka, Maryam, (and again) whatever, wasn’t even Akbar’s second wife: that was Salima Sultan, the beauteous widow of his disgraced mentor Bairam Khan, and mother of Abdur Rahim Khan-i-Khanan.

The royal Kachwaha annals do record that a princess of Amer or what is now Jaipur, was married off to Akbar. That’s Queen Number Three. The question is whether her name was Jodh (no ‘a’ at the end, never mind ‘aa’!) or Harka or Maryam and, of course, whatever.

Well, once officially one of Akbar’s queens, she lost her identity in the harem as was the norm, so even if she was Jodh Bai, she eventually became Maryam Zamani - an honorific similar to her mother in law Hamida Bano Begum’s title of Maryam Makani.

The name Maryam had once excited some historians to conjecture that the queens were, n or had become, Christians, but that’s complicating it too much. We’re only talking about getting a movie straight after all; not looking at Akbar’s religious predilections. And there are, too many women in the tale anyway already: wives and wenches, wet nurses… and Ma.

Maryam Makani, Akbar’s mother, was around till only two years before Akbar himself died, and we know how important mothers are….don’t doubt the efficacy of Mere paas Ma hai.

Enter the confusion. Erase all the historians quoted by all previous newspaper and other stories as read. Instead, start with an unusual picture painted by a usual suspect, Salman Rushdie. A lyrical short story in the New Yorker this month has the magic realist making Jodha a palimpsest a figment of a grandiose emperor’s imagination as an embodiment of perfection that the hundreds in his harem can never match up to, even all together.

At the other end, there’s Lt Colonel James Tod’s Annals and Antiquities of Rajasthan, that was for a long time a major historical ready reckoner. That venerable India-hand’s 19th century account of Rajpootana’s travails, however, can hardly be praised for consistency. In the two volumes, there are many contradictory references to marriages between Rajput princesses and Mughal emperors, a fact which some anti-Jodhaa-Akbar protestors actually dispute!

Some examples of how Tod has complicated the confusion: In the first volume, on page 282, he writes thus about the Rathore prince of Marwar, “Oody ‘le gros’ (Udai the Fat) was the first of his race who gave a daughter in marriage to a Tatar. The bribe for which he bartered his honour was splendid; for four provinces yielding £200,000 of annual revenue were given in exchange for Jod Bae..” and a footnote adds helpfully, “The magnificent tomb of Jod Bae, the mother of Shah Jehan, is at Secundra near Agra…”

Ergo, Tod asserts that the first Rajput- Mughal alliance happened not because Akbar launched his policy of matrimonial alliances as current school textbooks say, but when “Jod Bae” married Jehangir, right? Well, not quite….For, on the very next page Tod says, “It has been already related that Hemayoon espoused a daughter of Bagwandas, consequently Raja Maun was brother in law to Akber…”Hmmm.

In the second volume, on page 30, however, he blithely writes, “On the union of the imperial house with that of Jodpoor, by the marriage of Jod Bae to Akber…” and then on page 36 he says, “Sultan Purvez, the elder son and heir of Jehangir, was the issue of a princess of Marwar (read Jodhpur) while the second son Khoorm, as his name imports, was the son of a Cutchwaha princess of Amber”. It’s dear that the more you read, the more confused you get.

What’s in a name-anyway? If she’s Jodh Bai does she have to be from Jodhpur, i.e., a Rathore princess of Marwar? And if she’s Man Bai (as some say), does she have to be a Kachwaha princess of Jaipur and therefore some relative of the famous Raja Man Singh? Not at all.

Rathore historian Dhananajaya Singh says that Kachwaha royal chronicles have records of a princess (daughter of Raja Bharmal and sister of Man Singh) marrying Akbar and a Rathore princess (later styled Jagat Gosain) marrying Jehangir. So the chances are Akbar’s Jaipuri begum could well have been Jodh and Jehangir’s Jodhpuri begum could well have been Manbai or even Jagat Gosain.

That last name hardly sounds romantic; can you imagine Aishwarya being called Jagat Gosain? Well, why not?

 

 

SWINGING MARKETS ACROSS THE WORLD

Friday, 28th March, 2008

The market made some large swings in both directions last week, but the Sensex finished just 1.35% or 215 points lower. The Nifty closed a modest 0.54% down, and the CNX Midcap lost 1.65%.

New entrant Jaiprakash Associates was the biggest winner among the Sensex stocks with a 14.2% gain. It was followed by ACC, Ranbaxy Laboratories, NTPC and ONGC, with gains between 5% and 9%.

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Wipro was the biggest loser among the Sensex stocks with an 11 % fall. Other casualties were Sat yam Computer Services, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) and State Bank of India (SBI), with losses between 6 % and 11 %.

The newly listed GSS America Infotech was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non -Sensex stocks with a 24.5% gain. Shree Renuka Sugars, Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, Bajaj Holdings, Tata Communications, Cairn India and Punj Lloyd followed, with gains between 8 % and 21 %.

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GTC Industries was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non -Sensex stocks with a 17% loss. Other losers were Financial Technologies, Videocon Industries, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), Hindustan Construction and IVRCL Infrastructure and Projects, with losses between 9 % and 15 %.

The intermediate downtrend that began on February 4, when the Sensex topped out at 18895, is still on. The Sensex will have to cross 16683 to start a new intermediate uptrend. The corresponding level for the Nifty stands at 5019, and that of the CNX Midcap index is 7019.

Global markets had started falling again by the time this article was written (on Friday evening), and this may put pressure on the Indian market early next week.

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The Sensex has reversed upwards thrice on approaching 15000 since January 22, and a fall below that level can imply a more persistent intermediate downtrend.

The main indices are in major (long-term) downtrends with falling tops and bottoms, and the CNX Midcap can also be taken to be in one, as it closed at a six-month low. A major downtrend means a bear market, and all the better-known global indices are also in one at this time, with many falling to their lowest levels in a year or more during this decline.

The Sensex has to close above its last intermediate top of 18895 to be back in a bull market. The corresponding level for the Nifty is 5545, and for the CNX Midcap index it’s 7814.

Volatility was unusually high last week, with the Sensex’s intra -day ranges averaging more than 550 points. Such spells are often followed by choppy phases - in other words, two-way swings without much of a trend. In fact, last week already saw the indices swinging both ways without really getting anywhere.

Such conditions make the overnight risk on swing trades considerably higher than normal. Even day traders may find it better to use tighter trailing stops, as the market may be prone to changing direction abruptly.

The US Federal Reserve’s $200-billion package provided some relief to the global decline - with the Dow Jones recording its largest percentage gain in five years on Wednesday. European markets also rallied, but Asian markets - including ours still crashed a day later.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones remains in an intermediate downtrend despite Wednesday’s rally. It will have to climb back above 12850 to get into an intermediate uptrend, while a fall below 11690 will take it below the point from which it rallied after the Fed’s move.

The long-term (major) trends of all the important global indices are down. The Dow Jones will have to be back above 14000 for its major trend to turn up again to enter another bull market. Most global indices ended their bull markets last October, while Tokyo’s Nikkei topped out even earlier in July.

The Sensex’s gain for the 12 months that ended on Thursday stands at 22.6%, making it the sixth-best performer among 40 well known global indices considered for the study. Egypt heads the list with a 53.5 % gain. Brazil, Indonesia, Shanghai and Karachi follow with gains between 33.6% and 43.9%. (These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration). The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 0.1 % during the same interval while the NASDAQ Composite has lost 4.6%. Global commodity markets have also been unusually wild, with gold hitting $1,000 for the first time ever. Even sugar futures gained 33% in the first two months of this year. Currency markets are also in the fray, with the US dollar poised to drop below 100 yen.

 

 

 

USER FRIENDLY AIRPORTS

Thursday, 27th March, 2008

In a major relief to domestic passengers, the civil aviation ministry has told developers of the new international airports at Hyderabad and Bangalore to restrict user development fee (UDF) to Rs 200 instead of the initially-proposed amounts that were three times higher. However, the ministry is open to the idea of higher airport charges for international passengers.

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UDF is in addition to passenger service fee (PSF) of Rs 225 levied at airports across the country. The ministry’s intervention means the GMR Malaysian Airports teams, developer of the Hyderabad airport, and Siemens-Zurich airport consortium, developer of the Bangalore airport, have to restrict UDF to Rs 200 in the case of domestic passengers till the proposed Airport Economic Regu1atory Authority of India (AERA) is set up for regulating airport charges.

In the first four months of operation, the new airports are free to levy airport charges of their choice.

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However, they have to seek government approval for their tariffs after this period and that is when the ceiling of Rs 200 per passengers would kick in.

As of now, GMR Hyderabad International Airport Ltd (GHIAL) plans to collect Rs 1,000 from every passenger taking an international flight from the new airport. There will be no charge for domestic passengers during the initial period. After this period, domestic passengers wo1.1ld pay Rs 650 each time they depart from the new Hyderabad airport.

Bengaluru International Airport Ltd (BIAL) plans to collect Rs 520 from each passenger - for both domestic as well as international services initially. However, the tariff would increase to Rs 675 in case of domestic passengers and Rs 950 in the case of international passengers after two months.

Passengers are left with no option but to pay the steep levy as the old airports at both cities are being dosed. Apart from forking out higher airport charges, passengers are also faced with higher cab charges since the two airports are located outside the cities.

“We may agree to higher UDF for international passengers but charging a steep fee from domestic passengers is out of question,” a senior ministry official said. It is understood airlines have complained that high airport charges would turn air travel unviable on short- haul routes. The aviation ministry is of the view that developers have long concession periods to recover their cost and steep tariffs would be a heavy burden on travelers.

“The UDF private developers have proposed is completely unreasonable. But they should remember that they can collect such fees only for 120 days according to the concession agreement. They have to get their fee approved by us after this period. We feel airport charges of Rs 150toRs200fromdomesticpassengerswouldbe the most reasonable,” the official said.

“It’s very unfortunate that government is playing the part of regulator by interfering into fixing the tariff. It was expected that regulator would be in place at the time of opening of Bangalore and Hyderabad airports but it has not happened as expected,” Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation’s India head Kapil Kaul said.

“Lenders gave money to private developers on the basis of their plan to collect UDF as principle source of revenue. The airport projects are funded on debt-equity basis. Incorporating UDF as source of revenue is a necessity for the companies if they have to be viable,” he said.

The government has proposed setting up of AERA to regulate airport tariff and create competition among airports. It might take some time before the regulator is put in place as a Parliamentary standing committee headed by Sitaram Yechury is reviewing the AERA bill. The bill is likely to be reintroduced in Parliament in the monsoon session.

GHIAL, a joint venture of GMR Group (63%), Airports Authority of India (13%), Andhra Pradesh government (13) and Malaysian Airports Holding Berhad (11%), has invested Rs 2,478 crore to build the Greenfield airport in Hyderabad.

The debt equity ratio of the project stands at 2.1: 1.

For the new Bangalore airport, BIAL, a consortium led by Siemens (40%), Unique Zurich and L&T (17% each), Airports Authority of India and KSIIDC (13% each) has invested Rs 2,470 crore.

While equity, state support, internal accruals and security deposits contributed 35% to the total project cost, the remaining 65 % was raised as debt.

The UDF component was included in the concession agreement to let developers recover their cost, considering the airport would be new and hence little scope of non-aeronautical revenue such as retail and hospitality. It may be noted here that Kochi international airport, the first private commercial airport in the country, collected a UDF of Rs 500 for many years, finally withdrawing it in January 2006.

In the concession agreement between the government and private developers GHIAL and BIAL, neither the UDF amount nor the period for which it would be collected has been specified.

 

 

STRESS RELEASE-DOOR TO JOY

Thursday, 27th March, 2008

Why is it that while some hardly encounter any resistance or hurdle, certain others seem to be pursued by problems and unfavourable developments in all they take up? Maharishi Mahesh Yogi’s explanation in this regard is strikingly original and noteworthy. He notes that the crux of all effective living lies in the exhortation of the Bhagawad Gita, to base oneself in clarity and inner power (yoga) and thereafter perform all actions (yogastah kuru karmani). This is the state, where the aspirant translates into action the three definitions of yoga, as they figure in the Bhagawad Gita-being equanimous (samatvam), being skilful in every action karmasu kaushalam) and being dissociated from all pain (dukha samyoga viyogah).

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This also is the process of being in harmony and fulfilled with all aspects within (atmaratih), whereby one also is in harmony with all aspects without too, and the nature all around. Naturally so, he obtains support from all over in the form of congenial surroundings and situations. Not merely does he overcome obstacles, difficulties and opposition, but pre-empts these. This is the visualization of Henry Thoreau in his Walden of “living with the license of a higher order of beings”, where “new, universal and more liberal laws begin to establish themselves around and within”. Realignment of situations and relationships comes about, in view of this cleansing within, in the spirit of Stephen Covey’s concept of “inside out”.

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The key to attaining the state of a cleansed and empowered self is through, what Mahesh yogi terms as “stress release”. This is through the process of meditation and through those fulfilling experiences which would serve to neutralize the accumulation of the binding effects of retarding forces and aberrations within (samskara).

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These verily are the stresses and toxins within, which erupt invariably all over as unnatural obstacles, resistance and damp squibs and which ward off blessings and positive developments, which would otherwise have come about. Release of these undesirables creates the needed “space” and opens doors to all goodness, joy, promise and potential in line with the concept’ in the Bible (Mathew: 7,7), “Ask and it shall be given unto you; seek and you shall find; knock and it shall be opened”. Indeed, this verily, is the happy outcome of obtaining, what Mahesh Yogi terms as ‘nature’s support”.

 

 

Savarkar surfaces

Thursday, 27th March, 2008

Once lived on this mortal earth of mother India the great revolutionary Swatantraya Veer Savarkar who not only fought the British yoke but also wrote with a pen smeared in blood and pain. And this pen now blazes once more, thanks to Chandigarh-based publishing house Abhishek Publications that has only recently published four volumes of Savarkar’s writings titled Selected Works of Veer Savarkar.

Shares the publisher Bharat Bhushan: “I was recommended to browse through Savarkar’s The Indian War of Independence and could you believe it, I just couldn’t lay my hands on the book, not even in most libraries, only to find one rare copy at the library in Lala Lajpat Rai Bhawan”. As he read the book with great interest and fascination, he felt it was imperative to share it with others. So he decided to publish the same.

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The search led him to Savarkar’s brother’s daughter-in-Law. He sought that the copyright be granted not only for Indian War of Independence but for other works too. And the four-volume selection is, as the preface reminds, a painful journey through the history of dark and turbulent years of British domination, reinventing the bitter memories of injustice.

Amongst other volumes, the biographical work My Transportation to Life is a searing encapsulation of the trials and the sufferings that Savarkar and other prisoners underwent in the infamous cellular jail of Andaman better known as Kaala Paani.

Chilling to the bone, it bares human depravation yet is also about human grit against all odds. Then there is Six Epochs of Indian History that traces Indian history right from Chandragupta’s period to the historic moment of freedom listing the events in-between.

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Fourth volume is Hindu Pad Padshahi which explores the essentials of Hindu rashtra. In the volume, Savarkar stresses that Hinduism is different from Hindutava and that Hinduism is only a derivative, a fraction of Hindutava and Hindu is defined by culture and value, not by narrow definition of religion.

But the publisher’s favourite is Indian War of Independence which interestingly was banned when first published, yet became the most widely read book and a ready reckoner for all those nursing the patriotic fervour. Even Nehru has mentioned the book in his Discovery of India. But then Savarakar who wrote the book in the year 1908 at age 24 himself wrote in his magazine Talwar that the object of his writing was to wage a second and successful war against British to liberate the motherland.

The publisher intends to bring out a paperback edition of this encapsulation of what is today being hailed as India’s first war of Independence. But whether there are takers for the exorbitantly priced (nearly Rs 3000) four-volume set presently available, says he, “So far the reader response has been very encouraging”. Indeed for the young generation many of whom may at best have heard Savarkar’s name fleetingly; the book is a cutting reminder that the freedom they are enjoying today has come at a very steep price.

 

 

HOW TO PAY FAT SALARY BILL?

Thursday, 27th March, 2008

The series of proposals made by the 6th pay commission, if implemented would cost the government Rs 12,561 crore -in 2008-09. In addition it would involve an additional one-time burden of Rs 18060 crore on payment of arrears.

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“The Government may pay the arrears in two installments in different years which will mean that the expenditure on this account will be of Rs.6321 crore in Central Budget and Rs.2709 crore in Railway Budget for each of the two years,” the report said. Savings of Rs 4586 crore is likely to accrue on account of various measures suggested in the report. The net financial implication in 2008-09 is estimated to be Rs 7975 crore.

Total cost of implementing the revised pay bands is expected to be Rs.5468 crore per annum. This includes the annual expenditure of Rs.3828 crore on revised pay bands for civilian employees and expenditure of RS.1640 crore per annum for revised pay bands in the Defence Forces.

The biggest saving of Rs 1,800 crore could come from lateral movement of defence forces personnel to central Para-military forces, followed by Rs 1,000 crore on account of rectification of commutation of pension formula. The cost of revised pay band, aimed at averting stagnation at any given level, to the exchequer would be Rs 5,468 crore, including Rs 3,828 crore for civilian and Rs 1,640 crore for defence personnel.

The Commission recommended that the arrears of Rs 18,060 crore be paid in two installments in different years and clarified that the union budget would have to account for as much as Rs 12,642 crore, while the balance of Rs 5,418 crore would have to be provided for in the railway budget. Two installments would lead to a burden of Rs 6,321 crore in the central budget and Rs 2,709 crore in the railway budget in each year.

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 ”Including the expenditure on payment of arrears, the additional expenditure for the year 2008 for the government will be Rs 15,563 crore in case arrears are paid over a period of two years with the remaining expenditure of Rs 6,028 crore being borne by the railways in their budget,” the report said.

“A major departure from the earlier pay commission has been made in respect of pay scales… a conscious departure have been made of in recommending running pay band.” Existing expenditure on gratuity is estimated at Rs 2,515 crore p.a. Increased payments on account of the increase in pay scales will result in an additional annual expenditure of Rs 360 crore approximately.

ONLINE TRADING: A FEW TIPS

Wednesday, 26th March, 2008

Online Trading offers lot of investment opportunities. You can trade or invest in Equities, Commodities, Futures, Derivatives, IPOs, Mutual Funds, Tax Saving Certificates and Forex Markets through paperless online transactions.

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However, you need to thoroughly understand your service provider’s onscreen trading window, before carrying out any such transactions. A slight negligence may cost you a huge monetary loss.
There are two types of basic transactions namely ‘buy’ and ’sell’ orders. Again, ’sell’ orders are classified into ’selling long’ and ’selling short’ orders. While there is no confusion as far as a ‘buy’ order is concerned, one needs to understand ’sell’ order(s) properly before carrying out such transactions. When you are selling shares that you own in your Demat Account, you are selling ‘long’. In this case, shares owned by you will be sold out and the profit earned will be credited to your account.

A trader can make money by selling the shares without even owning them-’ short selling’-and buying them later when share prices fall. In such cases, the first transaction is ’sell’ and square-off or subsequent transaction is ‘buy’. Traders often resort to ’short-selling’ to earn profit when they sense a bearish stock market. But, such transactions must be squared-off on the same day before the stipulated timeframe set by the exchange, as technically it is not possible to convert such ’sell’ orders into delivery.

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If you want to sell the shares from your demat account using the online trading website provided to you by your broker, you must allocate them first, or else, you may end up in ’short-selling’, In such a case, you need to square-off that transaction by buying them.
If you fail to do so, the system will square-off the transaction at the stipulated time. You may lose money if the share is trading above the price that you sold at. The best way to sell shares from your demat is to visit the demat allocation page of your online trading website and click on the ’sell’ button placed next to the equity you want to sell. This will automatically take you to square-off dialogue box.

Another way to prevent undesired ’short-selling’ is to set ‘auto-allocation of funds’ to inactive. In the event of a mistake made by you during trading, such an order will be rejected by the system due to lack of allocation of funds to carry out the transaction. Allocate funds only when you wish to buy shares.
To avoid these types of confusions, some brokerage houses now included separate buttons for ’sell’ and ’short-sell’ orders on the trading page of their website.
You should also be aware about buying or selling at ‘Market’ or ‘Limit’ price. You are executing your order at Market price, if you are transacting at prevailing price to meet required quantity of shares.

Market orders are executed almost immediately when they find desired quantity, irrespective of price factor. Disadvantage of this type of order is that trader does not know the price until trade gets executed and is very dangerous in volatile market. If you are placing an order at a pre-determined price, then you are carrying out a transaction at a price Limit.

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It is safe to resort to Limit type of order than getting unfavourable results by transacting at Market price. And it is always better to refer the list of available bidders and offers at different prices and quantities before placing orders.

‘Over literate’ Indian investor

Wednesday, 26th March, 2008

The other day I heard someone say that the investment community in India was being “over-literate” in its reaction to the US credit markets crisis. It’s an interesting idea, this over-literacy. What it means is that people are being over-knowledgeable about the crisis and are thus over-reacting to it. . Over the last few months, it has looked like that events around the world affect the short-term sentiment on the Indian stock markets far more than they affect other markets. Since I’ve always believed that being knowledgeable is a basic requisite for being good investors, I was surprised to find myself agreeing with this idea of over-literacy. However, in my opinion, over-literacy is really a problem at an individual level-professional investors and analysts should be as literate and knowledgeable as possible.

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At the individual level, things are different. Many; perhaps most investors really do pay more attention to the big-picture side of investing than to the micro side. In this sense, the big-picture is what is happening to world and the Indian economy and the micro side is what is happening to your personal finances.

There is this childhood friend of mind who is a perfect example of this problem, and since he is a childhood friend, I feel at complete liberty to criticize him. Last week, he wanted to know if he should rethink which ELSS fund he should make his tax-saving investments based on the farm loan waiver or the US credit crisis.

I got really angry with him when I heard this.

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Here’s a guy who pays out about 70 per cent’ of his salary on EMIs of various things he can do without, including an unneeded second apartment which is declining in value, a second car that’s far too fancy and various sundries like LCD TV s and video cameras, all of which are mere replacements for older models that work perfectly well. He saves nothing more than the Rs 1 lakh 80C limit and his PF.

As I told him with a great deal of frankness, his savings goals would be far more achievable if he focused on simply saving more money rather than being worried about stuff that P Chidambaram and Ben Bernanke can manage by themselves.

A very big determinant in how much money your savings and investments will make is to have more savings to begin with.

This sounds like a laughably simple idea but it isn’t. It’s the one thing that is under your control. It makes very little sense to read too many newspapers and watch too much business TV and keeps obsessing about those things rather than figure out how to save more. It’s a little bit like going to great lengths to choose a vehicle that has five per cent better fuel consumption when it’s so much simpler to just reduce your driving by five per cent.

Does that mean that big picture doesn’t matter? It does, but it’s pointless to worry about that before you fix the small stuff. Look at it this way. If you manage to start driving five per cent less, then it will be far better to also have a car that consumes five per cent less fuel.

 

THE SECOND BEST. AGAIN!

Wednesday, 26th March, 2008

For the second time in four weeks, Jeev Milkha Singh faltered at the doorsteps of victory and finished runner-up at the inaugural Ballantine’s Championships. Jeev lost in the third play-off hole to Northern Ireland’s Graeme McDowell. At one stage, the Indian led McDowell by three shots and it looked like smooth sailing as he was hitting the ball superbly.

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Jeev, who shared the top spot when play started this morning, carded a final round of six-under 66 and ended in a tie with McDowell at 24-under 264 after regulation play. Jeev had four amazing rounds of 68, 66, 64 and 66 but the bogey on the 17th proved crucial as that 9pened the door for McDowell to get into a play-off. “It was terribly disappointing to have come so close and not make it. That 17th proved to be the crucial hole,” ’said Jeev.

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“But I am very happy with my overall game. A score of 24-under is satisfactory under any circumstances, but having come this close it is an empty feeling to finish second. Maybe I will just take the positives and I am sure there are better things in store for me,” said Jeev, who played with a ligament injury on his right leg and a bout of flu, which dogged him all through.

Jyoti Randhawa (67) finished tied 11th that snapped his streak of top-10 finishes. Jyoti has been in top-10 for the last five weeks. Gaurav Ghei (72) was 57th. In the morning, Jeev seemed to be cruising to victory as he birdied three of the first four holes. At that stage he was 21-under and three clear of McDowell, with whom he had shared overnight lead.

Jeev started with a par but birdied the next three holes to pull ahead as McDowell birdied the third and bogeyed the fourth.

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By the turn, Jeev was still two shots ahead. On the back nine, Jeev birdied the tenth, but McDowell eagled the same to close the gap to one. McDowell birdied the 12th to tie with Jeev, but the Indian nosed ahead again with a birdie on 13th. It happened again on 15th when McDowell birdied the hole to draw level only to see Jeev inch ahead with a birdie on 16th. With a lead of one, Jeev needed to hold, but a horrible tee shot on 17th saw him finish with a bogey. Both parred the tough final hole, with Jeev holing a clutch putt from 10 feet to get into a play-off.

The players halved the first two times on the 18th and then the third time, Jeev had a great pitch to leave himself a five-footer, but McDowell went one better coming to less than two feet. Jeev missed the putt and McDowell holed it to clinch his first title in four years. This was the second runner-up finish for Jeev, who was also second at the Astro Enjoy Indonesia Open four weeks ago. Paul McGinley (67) finished third af17-under 271 and Shingo Katayama of Japan shot 69 to finish fourth at 15-under 273.