The visit to Wagah border was supposed to make me feel good as an Indian. ‘The pomp and pageantry of the Beating Retreat and the Change of Guard within handshaking distance of the Indian and Pakistani forces at the Wagah border make a charming spectacle: says the official website of Amritsar. I’d heard a lot about how the soldiers of the Border Security Force march so erect, how they raise their legs so high it’s a marvel they manage to stay on their feet without losing their balance etc, so was looking forward to Wagah as one of the high points of my visit to Amritsar last week. Then why did I come away strangely disturbed, with mixed feelings, on balance more of sorrow than of pride or joy? Was it because of the sheer bedlam that preceded the actual ceremony? The indisciplined manner in which the mass of humanity at the barricade some 50 yards ahead of the venue surged forward when it was lowered, causing a virtual stampede? Was it the chaotic close-to one-hour wait on the cold, hard steps, men in one enclosure, women in another, all packed tight like sardines in a tin, even as huge VIP enclosures remained almost empty? Was it the sinking realisation (yet again) that in India you really don’t count unless you are ‘somebody’ (ideally a babu or a politician), as repeated pleas to allow some of the aam janta to sit in the empty VIP enclosures met with only stony looks from jawans manning the enclosures? Or was it the blatant jingoism of the events leading up to the actual change of guard ceremony? A jingoism that sat oddly with the undulating green fields that stretched on both sides of the border as far as the eye could see. Presumably all of us were proud to be Indians; why else would we have made the trip to Wagah, driving or on foot, through the dusty roads of Amritsar. But did we have to wear our patriotism on our sleeves; did we have to have martial songs blaring through loudspeakers, interspersed with barely disguised war cries of ‘Bharat Mata Zindabad? But if we were bad, the Pakistanis were no better. Their loud-speakers blared just as loudly though their cries of ‘Pakistan Zindabad’ were feebler given their smaller numbers. The effort, quite dearly, was for each side to drown out the [...]
Archive for March 8th, 2008
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CAN WE HAVE A DURABLE RALLY?
March 8th, 2008 
krishna Market Sentiment has been on the mend this week. After that initial dip towards 5000, the Nifty rallied to 5350 before encountering some resistance there. The big question is whether this is the beginning of a durable recovery or a brief flash that fizzles out around 5500, like last time. The two obvious reasons for this week’s strength are global market stability and some pre budget sentiment, in that order. The key to the sustainability of this market rally lies in these two outcomes too. Wire money online to India with Xoom.com for as low as $4.99. Investor expectations are low this time so it is entirely possible that if the budget doesn’t have anything specifically bad for capital markets we could see the March series opening up well. A sensex move to 19,000 cannot be ruled out then. Global market stability is more important though. There too, a contrarian move could be shaping up against the wall of pessimism that abounds. That, more than anything, could be the most important driver of any global equity rally over .the coming weeks. Sentiment is terrible, almost everyone expects more downside, investors are either sitting on cash or short equities. The reasons are not difficult to see but such bearish conditions are often the bedrock of surprising rallies. These moves are always difficult to predict as they go against the grain of consensus wisdom and even hard economic realities but markets are markets. It’s not a done deal yet, by far. A rally is a possibility, no more. If that possibility were to play out then traders will chase prices but investors should ask how they should play it. If the rally is of surprising proportions, say the Nifty goes to 6000 or the Sensex past 20,000, and I am sure a quick 10-12 per cent rally from here would surprise most people, then investors may do well to cash out towards the end of it. My own sense is that cash raised at those levels may find much better price points to enter a few months down the line. Too many people are bearish now, the market may well feed on that to deliver a surprise but as soon as consensus turns bullish again in a difficult economic backdrop, it would set the stage for more turbulence. We haven’t seen the last storm of 2008 yet but who can rule out [...]
CAN CRICKET FOLLOW FOOTBALL?
March 8th, 2008 krishna The game of cricket was being played between countries. It was right from the beginning when this game of cricket was started. All the glamour has been associated with international contests like England playing Australia for the Ashes or India taking on Pakistan in either the five-day Test matches or one day internationals (ODIs). International football is, however, essentially either a quadrennial (once in four years) event when the World Cup takes place between nations across the globe or biennial when countries within a continent compete in tournaments like Euro 2008. Because of the popularity of the club football in the English Premier League, you will find fans of Manchester United across the world. It is the football clubs which hire the best players in the universe every year and release them to play for the national teams. The success of the game is based on the annual turnover of clubs like Manchester United which made a whooping 245 million pound-sterling in 2007. It is the clubs which develop the game by nurturing new talent and showcasing the best money can buy. There is something coming up which may be considered as sibling of the kind of football we have mentioned above. This is going to happen in the game of cricket. The cut-off points was in the year 2007 when Subhash Chandra’s Indian Cricket League (ICL) model was sought to be improved on by the Board of Control for Cricket in India’s (BCCI’s) Twenty20 Indian Premier League(IPL).In the history of India, for the first time, India’s biggest industrialists and showbiz personalities bid in a BCCI auction to buy for 10 years teams representing urban cricketing nerve centres like Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Delhi, Mohali, Jaipur. With Mukesh Ambani and Mallya buying the Mumbai and Bangalore teams, respectively, for almost Rs 450 Crores each, and with players being auctioned for fees ranging from Rs.6 crore for Dhoni for this year’s 45-day tournament to Rs. 80 lakhs for Chaminda Vaas, the national cricket boards may at some stage in the future take a back seat just like the national football associations are doing now! Well the players of IPL, on an average, will earn Rs 2.10 crore for 45 days’ work and not just have to rely on making the national team. This also explains the keenness of Symonds to join IPL- the Rs 5.4 crore bid for him could [...]
