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Archive for March 10th, 2008

Let Banks Decide Home loan Rates

Monday, 10th March, 2008

The finance minister, P Chidambaram’s barely-veiled hint to banks to lower the interest rate on housing loans up to Rs 20 lakh is distressing for a variety of reasons. Notably because it suggests the government is determined to continue with the process of emasculating the banking system; a process set in motion with the farm loan waiver. For votaries of finandal sector reform - and the prime minister and the FM could once be counted among them - it is as if the dock has been turned back and the painstaking progress in moving towards a competitive banking system wasted.

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 The objective of the 1991 Narasimham Committee report on financial sector reform was to liberate the banking sector from the shackles of the command and control regime of the pre- reform days. And, barring a few hiccups, successive governments had followed its broad agenda. Till now, that is. The tragedy is that this is happening under a reformist prime minister and finance minister.

Many would also question whether it is in order for the FM to tell banks to lower interest rates, that too for housing loans that can by no means be considered ’small.’ Apart from the fact that FMs in developed markets steer dear of commenting publicly on interest rates, regarding it (rightly) as the central bank’s preserve, remember we are talking of a country where the annual per capita income is about Rs 35,000 while the equated monthly instalment for a housing loan of Rs 20 lakh (at a floating interest rate of 9.75 % for 15 years) works out to Rs 21,200. So these are not small loans by any yardstick; calling for lower interest rates on such loans does not provide the government with even the fig leaf of heiping the aam admi.

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 Moreover the rate charged by individual banks depends on their cost of deposits and business mix. As far as the signalling rate of the RBI is concerned, the key consideration is its outlook on the inflation front. With oil at $106 a barrel, other commodity (espedally foodgrains) prices rising globally and inflation as measured by the wholesale price index rising for the fourth successive week, it is evident inflationary pressures have not abated. In any case, interest rates are the RBI’s call. It would have been best, therefore, if the FM had trodden a little warily.

PETRO PRICE HIKE: A DROP IN OCEAN

Monday, 10th March, 2008

The increase in retail price of petrol and diesel by RS.2 and Re. 1 per litre would reduce the revenue loss (under recovery) of public sector oil marketing companies by Rs. 840 crore in the remaining weeks of the current financial year. Inspite of the price increase, the under recovery on petrol is Rs.7.25 per litre, Rs. 9 for a litre of diesel, Rs. 19.89 in kerosene and Rs. 331 for a 14.2 kilogram cylinder.

The government estimates under recoveries in the current financial year to be Rs. 71,800 crore. The increase in revenue from the hike in petrol and diesel prices constitutes a bare 1.2 per cent of the under recoveries.

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Sources said Finance Minister P Chidambaram opposed the petroleum ministry’s demand for a Re one per litre reduction in excise duty on petrol and diesel. Petroleum secretary M.S. Srinivasan said the under recoveries would have touched Rs. 90,000 crore, but for the appreciation of rupee against dollar and increase in gross refining margin in the first eight months of the current financial year.

The upstream companies - Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Oil India Ltd and GAIL (India)-would be contributing Rs. 24,000 crore in cross subsidy burden sharing to Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL).

The government will issue bonds to the tune of Rs. 57,000 crore, constituting 42.70 per cent will be issued by the finance ministry before the end of the financial year.

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Indian Oil Corporation chairman Sarthak Behuria said the increase in prices of diesel and petrol would substantially reduce the bonds in the next financial year. The oil bonds will also enable the oil companies to meet their working capital requirements.

“IOC, BPCL and HPCL have major expansion plans. IOC’s own capital expenditure is in the vicinity of Rs. 10,000 crore per year,” Behuria added.

Srinivasan said duty cuts and oil bonds were among the options available to the government. “We were concerned about getting relief for the oil PSUs. Whether it is through excise duty cut or oil bonds are not material,” he stated.

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OUR CHILDREN ARE NOT AMUSED

Monday, 10th March, 2008

The oldest and possibly the most accessible entertainment centre for youngsters in the capital, Appu Ghar, down its shutters forever. A brainchild of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, Appu Ghar, named after the cherubic mascot of the 1982 Delhi-Asiad, was set up in 1984. The closure was in the offing after the Supreme Court in January ordered the Urban Development Ministry to hand over the land, which the park’s management had taken on lease from the International Trade Promotion Council in 1984, to the apex court and the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation. - The land lease had expired in 1999.

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While the footfalls had decreased over the years and prices of tickets were not as attractive as before, Appu Ghar’s closure will mean the end of one of the last surviving open spaces for children in this city of over 14 million people. In fact, much before Mumbai’s Essel World, Kolkata’s Nicco Park and Kerala’s Veega Land were set up, this amusement park became India’s very own Disney World.

Keeping the legal and land lease issues aside, we can’t help but lament the closure of the park because there are hardly any more places left for the young in the city. Some would argue that Delhiites at least have the sprawling India Gate lawns, Nehru Park, Lodi Gardens and Hauz Khas Deer Park, but other than being green manicured patches, there’s not much to do in these places for children.

And, the less said the better about neighbourhood parks, most of which have become dustbowls, or, worse still, encroached upon. In comparison, the amusement park was much cleaner and located conveniently, especially, if you wanted to do the National Zoological Garden-Appu Ghar-Dolls Museum circuit.

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The park also did not too badly when it came to upgrading with the times: Oysters, the water park, was a hit with students. As were the Ice Games. In fact, unadulterated fun in a secured atmosphere was the main reason behind its tremendous popularity.

As ‘entertainment’ gets more and more restricted to the digital world and the sanitised environs of shopping malls, the need for open/public spaces for children is increasingly becoming more important than ever before. Almost every other day, there are reports of the ill-effects of a sedentary lifestyle on children, like obesity. A sedentary lifestyle is the forerunner of unhealthy adulthood. It’s high time we think about ways how to get our children off their couches. And, to do that we need more open spaces where children can be children once again.

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CHANGE THE GEAR NOW!

Monday, 10th March, 2008

Globally the automotive industry is a key economic sector and drives the emergence of a strong employment-led manufacturing sector. India is no exception. We are the second largest two-wheeler, the 11th largest passenger car and the fifth largest commercial vehicle producer-in the world. In fact, this sector can enable the government to fulfill its two promises: promoting manufacturing and generating employment. An additional car manufactured generates five jobs, a commercial vehicle 13.

The current share of employment in the manufacturing sector is around 12 per cent as against 50 to per cent in Malaysia, 62 per cent in Korea and 31per cent in China. Growth in the automotive sector could significantly change this. The government’s Automotive Mission Plan 2006-2016 (AMP) in aims to make India a global automotive hub, accounting for 10 per cent of the GDP and creating 25 or million additional jobs by 2016.

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The industry is investing over Rs 75,000 crore, of nearly 50 per cent of the investments envisioned in the AMP. Much of this will be in regions that did not have any pre-existing manufacturing activity. The industry is also developing new products. While the unveiling of the Nano attracted global attention, many new two-wheelers, trucks, buses and other products were also on display at the Auto Expo in Delhi. Some products like the ‘i10′ are manufactured here for the world. The industry is committed to making the vision of the AMP a reality. Increasing commodity prices, depreciating dollar, hardening interest rates and high taxes have posed new challenges for the growth of the industry.

Considering all these, will we be able to meet the AMP targets? Yes, but there is a need for multiple actions like reduction of taxes, specifically excise duty and the creation of an enabling environment so that the mobility aspirations of Indians are met. An inter-ministerial task force to implement and monitor the AMP is needed.

India has the second-largest road network in the world after the US. The US’s network is twice as large as India’s and it carries over 11 times the number of cars. Japan has seven times the number of vehicles but one-third the road length; Brazil twice and China thrice the number of vehicles but with just half the road length. The issue in India is connectivity. A well-connected and efficient road network 

would be the bedrock of a competitive India. Otherwise, it would not be possible in the future to transport goods including agricultural products from the rural hinterland to the national or international markets. A nine-state survey indicated that the construction of rural roads would lead to change in the cropping pattern, increase farm employment, improve access to health facilities, enhance the number of school going children, and increase the availability of public transportation among others.

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Of late, much has been said about cars out-pacing the growth in road development and the need to control private ownership of vehicles in our cities. This comparison is incorrect and misleading. The actual fact is that even in Delhi, one of our better cities, road availability has declined from 2.21 kms per 1,000 people in 199596 to 1.94 kms in 2005-06. With increasing urbanisation and influx of people, matters will get worse. The transportation sector contributes over Rs 120,000 crore as taxes and duties on vehicles and fuels. A proportion of this can be used to finance road and infrastructure development.

Improved public transportation is part of the solution. To do this, the ‘first step could be to reduce duties on buses and rationalising of road tax. The former can be done in Budget 2008 but states should extend similar facilities for VAT. The second needs an empowered committee of transport ministers and would take time.

Transport corporations and city bus systems have and can make profits. But, the sector needs reforms. Cross-subsidisation of passenger vehicles is not the answer. The problem is the multiplicity of departments and bodies that govern urban transport. A unified transport authority is required for coherence in planning and functioning. For example, in the Delhi metro, ring railway, taxis, autos and the city and inter-state buses need to be integrated. A strengthened, focused and extended urban renewal mission can enable this.

The increase in fuel prices was long due, but more needs to be done. The debate on petroleum prices is similar to the earlier one on electricity tariff. There is no reason why electricity and petroleum products need to be treated differently.

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To reduce fuel consumption, only efficiency standards would not have the desired impact in isolation of prices. The oil industry needs revenues to modernise and produce clean fuels. For emissions beyond 2010, an expert panel needs to be 

formed to announce a roadmap, a national norm rather than state or city-specific norms.

Research and development projects on alternative fuels and hybrids are required. Seventy-nine per cent of vehicles produced in India are two-wheelers, 71 per cent of the domestic car market is small cars, and a framework to encourage domestic production of such hybrids is required.

Research on second-generation bio-fuels, synthetic fuels and fuel cell/hydrogen vehicles must be initiated. Many governments are investing huge sums in R&D projects and support out-sourced R&D - all these could be a model for India. Almost all of what needs to be done is known. Leadership and allocation of funds with long-term tax incentives that include outsourced R&D are required.

Fostering innovation would enable more low-cost products like the Nano to be developed. To address the shortage of skilled personnel, an industry-institute partnership is a must. This has to be complemented by change in curriculum and teaching methodology. Many of the small auto component firms don’t have any access to capital. A modernisation fund could be created.

While the above measures would promote and sustain domestic demand and competitiveness sustains domestic demand and competitiveness, to become a global hub, exports have to increase. Exports have been growing at a compound annual rate of 40 per cent during the last five years.

More vehicles are exported than the number produced in 1980. We need to promote ‘Made in India’ products. The depreciation of the dollar and non-reimbursable embedded domestic taxes has reduced profitability of exports. This needs to be addressed along with improved rail connectivity between the auto-manufacturing plants and ports.

While the industry invests to improve productivity, quality, create new capacities and products, parallel action to create an enabling environment and futuristic infrastructure is needed to realise the vision of the AMP and is imperative to sustain growth.