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Archive for March 28th, 2008

Basketcase awards

Friday, 28th March, 2008

The political cycle is certainly alive and kicking in the Indian context. As elections draw closer, pressures are rising by the day to step up aam admi giveways to ensure that the UPA government can score at the hustings. If the Rs 60,000 crore farm loan waiver was targeted at rural vote banks, the Sixth Pay Commission award, the report of which is likely to be submitted to the government next week, targets the urban middle-class, especially the 3.9 million-strong regular central government employees. According to reports, they are set to receive a substantial raise of up to 52 per cent of what they are getting now. The new scales are to be effective from January 1, 2006.

Basketcase awards

Clearly, political rather than economic considerations will dictate the timing of e the UPA government’s decision to implement the Sixth Pay Commission’s recommendations. If the initial beneficiaries are central government employees, those employed in state governments will also demand parity in salaries. Although rapid economic growth during the last four years resulted in revenue buoyancy, the Centre’s finances are not entirely in order. Although the finance minister has claimed that there is enough fiscal headroom to meet the additional burden of 30,000 crore year, the tab will have to be picked up by the next government at the Centre (like the loan waiver.

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What are the fiscal consequences of this measure? Let us take the Fifth Pay Commission’s experience for a sense of at perspective. This was constituted in April 1994 and implemented in 1997 and resulted in the government’s fiscal deficit, a measure which indicates borrowings, increasing in each of the five years thereafter, hitting a peak of 9.9 percent of the gross domestic product in al 2001-02. Which is why even the official e- Economic Survey for 2005-06 issued a warning that “there is need to exercise caution to avoid a repetition of a similar deterioration in the medium term”.

The Fifth Pay Commission award was considered the biggest shock to the government’s finances during the last decade. The Sixth Pay Commission’s experience is unlikely to be any different. What makes the current prospect appear more daunting is that both the Centre and state governments are committed to adhere to the discipline of fiscal responsibility legislation. With electoral pressures mounting to step up populist spending with subsidies on oil and fertilisers likely to be higher than budgeted, where indeed is the fiscal headroom to fund the Sixth Pay Commission award this year?

WHO WAS JODHA BAI?

Friday, 28th March, 2008

Alal and Jodha have a certain lilt, certain chemistry. They’re Hrithik and Aishwarya after all. Not so, Akbar and Heera Kanwar, Jodha, Harka Bai, Maryam Zamani….or any other name. It’s a Bollywood movie, for Chris sakes, not a docu-drama. So, directors have a generous artistic licence. That’s why there never was any protest at the historicity of the K-serial-like royal household presented in K Asif’s Mughal-e-Azam with grandee father and mother (Akbar and ‘Jodhabai’), feckless son (Salim, aka Jehangir) and misunderstood angel (Anarkali) etc.

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We happily accepted the mummy-daddy characters played by the portly Durga Khote and Prithviraj Kapoor, but now want poor Ashutosh Gowarikar to prove the authenticity of the smoldering protagonists of the eponymous film Jodhaa-Akbar. Do we think real romancing couples actually warble their love or anxiety to the accompanied of background music? Of course not; that only happens in Bollywood. Well, so does the Jalal and Jodha love duet. Unfortunately, the truth for those interested in knowing it - is vague and therefore open to interpretations. So there are enough historians -like statistics to prove or disprove anything. The best bet, then, is to take the movie at (pretty) face value and enjoy it for the costumes (by Neeta Lulla, modem cocktail versions now on sale too) and the jewellery (by Tanishq, also pan of the merchandising blitz) and maybe for the cinematography. As for history, naah, don’t both- , because you’ll emerge more confused.

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But if you insist….

Let’s get the bare facts straight first. Jodha, Harka, Maryam, whatever, wasn’t Akbar’s first wife. That honour went to his first cousin, Ruqaiya, the daughter of his uncle Hindal. She never had children but Akbar obviously held her in high regard as she was entrusted later with the upbringing of his infant grandson Khurram, later Emperor Shahjehan. Jodha, Harka, Maryam, (and again) whatever, wasn’t even Akbar’s second wife: that was Salima Sultan, the beauteous widow of his disgraced mentor Bairam Khan, and mother of Abdur Rahim Khan-i-Khanan.

The royal Kachwaha annals do record that a princess of Amer or what is now Jaipur, was married off to Akbar. That’s Queen Number Three. The question is whether her name was Jodh (no ‘a’ at the end, never mind ‘aa’!) or Harka or Maryam and, of course, whatever.

Well, once officially one of Akbar’s queens, she lost her identity in the harem as was the norm, so even if she was Jodh Bai, she eventually became Maryam Zamani - an honorific similar to her mother in law Hamida Bano Begum’s title of Maryam Makani.

The name Maryam had once excited some historians to conjecture that the queens were, n or had become, Christians, but that’s complicating it too much. We’re only talking about getting a movie straight after all; not looking at Akbar’s religious predilections. And there are, too many women in the tale anyway already: wives and wenches, wet nurses… and Ma.

Maryam Makani, Akbar’s mother, was around till only two years before Akbar himself died, and we know how important mothers are….don’t doubt the efficacy of Mere paas Ma hai.

Enter the confusion. Erase all the historians quoted by all previous newspaper and other stories as read. Instead, start with an unusual picture painted by a usual suspect, Salman Rushdie. A lyrical short story in the New Yorker this month has the magic realist making Jodha a palimpsest a figment of a grandiose emperor’s imagination as an embodiment of perfection that the hundreds in his harem can never match up to, even all together.

At the other end, there’s Lt Colonel James Tod’s Annals and Antiquities of Rajasthan, that was for a long time a major historical ready reckoner. That venerable India-hand’s 19th century account of Rajpootana’s travails, however, can hardly be praised for consistency. In the two volumes, there are many contradictory references to marriages between Rajput princesses and Mughal emperors, a fact which some anti-Jodhaa-Akbar protestors actually dispute!

Some examples of how Tod has complicated the confusion: In the first volume, on page 282, he writes thus about the Rathore prince of Marwar, “Oody ‘le gros’ (Udai the Fat) was the first of his race who gave a daughter in marriage to a Tatar. The bribe for which he bartered his honour was splendid; for four provinces yielding £200,000 of annual revenue were given in exchange for Jod Bae..” and a footnote adds helpfully, “The magnificent tomb of Jod Bae, the mother of Shah Jehan, is at Secundra near Agra…”

Ergo, Tod asserts that the first Rajput- Mughal alliance happened not because Akbar launched his policy of matrimonial alliances as current school textbooks say, but when “Jod Bae” married Jehangir, right? Well, not quite….For, on the very next page Tod says, “It has been already related that Hemayoon espoused a daughter of Bagwandas, consequently Raja Maun was brother in law to Akber…”Hmmm.

In the second volume, on page 30, however, he blithely writes, “On the union of the imperial house with that of Jodpoor, by the marriage of Jod Bae to Akber…” and then on page 36 he says, “Sultan Purvez, the elder son and heir of Jehangir, was the issue of a princess of Marwar (read Jodhpur) while the second son Khoorm, as his name imports, was the son of a Cutchwaha princess of Amber”. It’s dear that the more you read, the more confused you get.

What’s in a name-anyway? If she’s Jodh Bai does she have to be from Jodhpur, i.e., a Rathore princess of Marwar? And if she’s Man Bai (as some say), does she have to be a Kachwaha princess of Jaipur and therefore some relative of the famous Raja Man Singh? Not at all.

Rathore historian Dhananajaya Singh says that Kachwaha royal chronicles have records of a princess (daughter of Raja Bharmal and sister of Man Singh) marrying Akbar and a Rathore princess (later styled Jagat Gosain) marrying Jehangir. So the chances are Akbar’s Jaipuri begum could well have been Jodh and Jehangir’s Jodhpuri begum could well have been Manbai or even Jagat Gosain.

That last name hardly sounds romantic; can you imagine Aishwarya being called Jagat Gosain? Well, why not?

 

 

SWINGING MARKETS ACROSS THE WORLD

Friday, 28th March, 2008

The market made some large swings in both directions last week, but the Sensex finished just 1.35% or 215 points lower. The Nifty closed a modest 0.54% down, and the CNX Midcap lost 1.65%.

New entrant Jaiprakash Associates was the biggest winner among the Sensex stocks with a 14.2% gain. It was followed by ACC, Ranbaxy Laboratories, NTPC and ONGC, with gains between 5% and 9%.

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Wipro was the biggest loser among the Sensex stocks with an 11 % fall. Other casualties were Sat yam Computer Services, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) and State Bank of India (SBI), with losses between 6 % and 11 %.

The newly listed GSS America Infotech was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non -Sensex stocks with a 24.5% gain. Shree Renuka Sugars, Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, Bajaj Holdings, Tata Communications, Cairn India and Punj Lloyd followed, with gains between 8 % and 21 %.

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GTC Industries was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non -Sensex stocks with a 17% loss. Other losers were Financial Technologies, Videocon Industries, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), Hindustan Construction and IVRCL Infrastructure and Projects, with losses between 9 % and 15 %.

The intermediate downtrend that began on February 4, when the Sensex topped out at 18895, is still on. The Sensex will have to cross 16683 to start a new intermediate uptrend. The corresponding level for the Nifty stands at 5019, and that of the CNX Midcap index is 7019.

Global markets had started falling again by the time this article was written (on Friday evening), and this may put pressure on the Indian market early next week.

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The Sensex has reversed upwards thrice on approaching 15000 since January 22, and a fall below that level can imply a more persistent intermediate downtrend.

The main indices are in major (long-term) downtrends with falling tops and bottoms, and the CNX Midcap can also be taken to be in one, as it closed at a six-month low. A major downtrend means a bear market, and all the better-known global indices are also in one at this time, with many falling to their lowest levels in a year or more during this decline.

The Sensex has to close above its last intermediate top of 18895 to be back in a bull market. The corresponding level for the Nifty is 5545, and for the CNX Midcap index it’s 7814.

Volatility was unusually high last week, with the Sensex’s intra -day ranges averaging more than 550 points. Such spells are often followed by choppy phases - in other words, two-way swings without much of a trend. In fact, last week already saw the indices swinging both ways without really getting anywhere.

Such conditions make the overnight risk on swing trades considerably higher than normal. Even day traders may find it better to use tighter trailing stops, as the market may be prone to changing direction abruptly.

The US Federal Reserve’s $200-billion package provided some relief to the global decline - with the Dow Jones recording its largest percentage gain in five years on Wednesday. European markets also rallied, but Asian markets - including ours still crashed a day later.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones remains in an intermediate downtrend despite Wednesday’s rally. It will have to climb back above 12850 to get into an intermediate uptrend, while a fall below 11690 will take it below the point from which it rallied after the Fed’s move.

The long-term (major) trends of all the important global indices are down. The Dow Jones will have to be back above 14000 for its major trend to turn up again to enter another bull market. Most global indices ended their bull markets last October, while Tokyo’s Nikkei topped out even earlier in July.

The Sensex’s gain for the 12 months that ended on Thursday stands at 22.6%, making it the sixth-best performer among 40 well known global indices considered for the study. Egypt heads the list with a 53.5 % gain. Brazil, Indonesia, Shanghai and Karachi follow with gains between 33.6% and 43.9%. (These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration). The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 0.1 % during the same interval while the NASDAQ Composite has lost 4.6%. Global commodity markets have also been unusually wild, with gold hitting $1,000 for the first time ever. Even sugar futures gained 33% in the first two months of this year. Currency markets are also in the fray, with the US dollar poised to drop below 100 yen.