The political cycle is certainly alive and kicking in the Indian context. As elections draw closer, pressures are rising by the day to step up aam admi giveways to ensure that the UPA government can score at the hustings. If the Rs 60,000 crore farm loan waiver was targeted at rural vote banks, the Sixth Pay Commission award, the report of which is likely to be submitted to the government next week, targets the urban middle-class, especially the 3.9 million-strong regular central government employees. According to reports, they are set to receive a substantial raise of up to 52 per cent of what they are getting now. The new scales are to be effective from January 1, 2006. Clearly, political rather than economic considerations will dictate the timing of e the UPA government’s decision to implement the Sixth Pay Commission’s recommendations. If the initial beneficiaries are central government employees, those employed in state governments will also demand parity in salaries. Although rapid economic growth during the last four years resulted in revenue buoyancy, the Centre’s finances are not entirely in order. Although the finance minister has claimed that there is enough fiscal headroom to meet the additional burden of 30,000 crore year, the tab will have to be picked up by the next government at the Centre (like the loan waiver. What are the fiscal consequences of this measure? Let us take the Fifth Pay Commission’s experience for a sense of at perspective. This was constituted in April 1994 and implemented in 1997 and resulted in the government’s fiscal deficit, a measure which indicates borrowings, increasing in each of the five years thereafter, hitting a peak of 9.9 percent of the gross domestic product in al 2001-02. Which is why even the official e- Economic Survey for 2005-06 issued a warning that “there is need to exercise caution to avoid a repetition of a similar deterioration in the medium term”. The Fifth Pay Commission award was considered the biggest shock to the government’s finances during the last decade. The Sixth Pay Commission’s experience is unlikely to be any different. What makes the current prospect appear more daunting is that both the Centre and state governments are committed to adhere to the discipline of fiscal responsibility legislation. With electoral pressures mounting to step up populist spending with subsidies on oil and fertilisers likely to be higher than budgeted, where indeed is [...]
Archive for March 28th, 2008
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WHO WAS JODHA BAI?
March 28th, 2008 
krishna Alal and Jodha have a certain lilt, certain chemistry. They’re Hrithik and Aishwarya after all. Not so, Akbar and Heera Kanwar, Jodha, Harka Bai, Maryam Zamani….or any other name. It’s a Bollywood movie, for Chris sakes, not a docu-drama. So, directors have a generous artistic licence. That’s why there never was any protest at the historicity of the K-serial-like royal household presented in K Asif’s Mughal-e-Azam with grandee father and mother (Akbar and ‘Jodhabai’), feckless son (Salim, aka Jehangir) and misunderstood angel (Anarkali) etc. We happily accepted the mummy-daddy characters played by the portly Durga Khote and Prithviraj Kapoor, but now want poor Ashutosh Gowarikar to prove the authenticity of the smoldering protagonists of the eponymous film Jodhaa-Akbar. Do we think real romancing couples actually warble their love or anxiety to the accompanied of background music? Of course not; that only happens in Bollywood. Well, so does the Jalal and Jodha love duet. Unfortunately, the truth for those interested in knowing it – is vague and therefore open to interpretations. So there are enough historians -like statistics to prove or disprove anything. The best bet, then, is to take the movie at (pretty) face value and enjoy it for the costumes (by Neeta Lulla, modem cocktail versions now on sale too) and the jewellery (by Tanishq, also pan of the merchandising blitz) and maybe for the cinematography. As for history, naah, don’t both- , because you’ll emerge more confused. But if you insist…. Let’s get the bare facts straight first. Jodha, Harka, Maryam, whatever, wasn’t Akbar’s first wife. That honour went to his first cousin, Ruqaiya, the daughter of his uncle Hindal. She never had children but Akbar obviously held her in high regard as she was entrusted later with the upbringing of his infant grandson Khurram, later Emperor Shahjehan. Jodha, Harka, Maryam, (and again) whatever, wasn’t even Akbar’s second wife: that was Salima Sultan, the beauteous widow of his disgraced mentor Bairam Khan, and mother of Abdur Rahim Khan-i-Khanan. The royal Kachwaha annals do record that a princess of Amer or what is now Jaipur, was married off to Akbar. That’s Queen Number Three. The question is whether her name was Jodh (no ‘a’ at the end, never mind ‘aa’!) or Harka or Maryam and, of course, whatever. Well, once officially one of Akbar’s queens, she lost her identity in the harem as was the norm, so even if [...]
SWINGING MARKETS ACROSS THE WORLD
March 28th, 2008 krishna The market made some large swings in both directions last week, but the Sensex finished just 1.35% or 215 points lower. The Nifty closed a modest 0.54% down, and the CNX Midcap lost 1.65%. Wire money online to India with Xoom.com for as low as $4.99. New entrant Jaiprakash Associates was the biggest winner among the Sensex stocks with a 14.2% gain. It was followed by ACC, Ranbaxy Laboratories, NTPC and ONGC, with gains between 5% and 9%. Wipro was the biggest loser among the Sensex stocks with an 11 % fall. Other casualties were Sat yam Computer Services, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) and State Bank of India (SBI), with losses between 6 % and 11 %. The newly listed GSS America Infotech was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non -Sensex stocks with a 24.5% gain. Shree Renuka Sugars, Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, Bajaj Holdings, Tata Communications, Cairn India and Punj Lloyd followed, with gains between 8 % and 21 %. GTC Industries was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non -Sensex stocks with a 17% loss. Other losers were Financial Technologies, Videocon Industries, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), Hindustan Construction and IVRCL Infrastructure and Projects, with losses between 9 % and 15 %. The intermediate downtrend that began on February 4, when the Sensex topped out at 18895, is still on. The Sensex will have to cross 16683 to start a new intermediate uptrend. The corresponding level for the Nifty stands at 5019, and that of the CNX Midcap index is 7019. Global markets had started falling again by the time this article was written (on Friday evening), and this may put pressure on the Indian market early next week. The Sensex has reversed upwards thrice on approaching 15000 since January 22, and a fall below that level can imply a more persistent intermediate downtrend. The main indices are in major (long-term) downtrends with falling tops and bottoms, and the CNX Midcap can also be taken to be in one, as it closed at a six-month low. A major downtrend means a bear market, and all the better-known global indices are also in one at this time, with many falling to their lowest levels in a year or more during this decline. The Sensex has to close above its last intermediate top of 18895 to be back in a [...]
