Archive for April 6th, 2008

Click on the title to listen and watch Hey Ram by Jagjit Singh, one of the great spiritual songs. It’s always a great experience when you have so many different religions in one country. You can listen to great spiritual songs and share your thoughts with everyone.

CHALLANGING TIMES AHEAD

Sunday, 6th April, 2008

The flourishing IT & ITeS may face some challenges in the coming months. Since the US financial market is witnessing a downturn, the dollar is on a dive, higher taxes and salaries are eroding margins and clients are reluctant to negotiate on higher price. All these factors will make life challenging for the IT and BPO companies, which have been used to fast growth and expansion over the past several years.

This slowdown in the US economy will have an impact on the large companies more, compared to smaller IT companies. Most of the large banks work primarily with the top tier Indian IT companies, who will be impacted the most, as their clients report losses and go bankrupt. UBS declared a loss of $13bn. Bears Stearns had to sell off to JP Morgan for $236 million as it was reported that the former booked a loss of over $2.6bn. Citibank is planning to restructure its India BPO operations as it has declared a loss of $24 bn. There are almost at least one center in India for these big financial institutions.  Satyam handled Bear Stearns, Citibank does its business with its captive E- serve in India.

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There may be a slowdown in the IT and BPO industry however it would not stop altogether.  Though some maintain that there will be greater outsourcing and more deals (though in the range of $30-$70 million in the next 12-18 months, as valuations have come down. It is estimated that a consolidation in vendor base as companies move towards financial restructuring and look towards cutting costs in the medium term. Critical outsourcing work like applications maintenance and infrastructure management will continue. But as things subside we may see greater outsourcing.

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It is expected that the yearly top line and bottom-line growth for the top five IT players may be taper this year. We expect top-tier IT companies (Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Satyam and HCL) to record around 20- 25 % year-on -year top-line growth in FY-2009, driven mainly by volumes and pricing-led improvements. If there is any further appreciation of the rupee against the greenback is also likely to put further pressure on growth rates. Consequently, we expect 50100 bps year-on-year margin contractions for these companies, which is likely to lead to slower EPS growth of 15-18% yearly.

The IT Stocks are to be handled with caution, as believed by many analysts. Since the beating they have taken over the past year, downside risks are limited for IT stocks. The dramatic re- ratings of these stocks are not likely in the near future. The investors must be patient if they plan to be buyers of IT stocks and expectations must also be toned down by market realities. We believe a 15 % annual return is not unreasonable to expect from top-tier IT stocks going ahead.

In between all this the companies are looking to expand their businesses in the Tier II and Tier III cities. This is to fight rising salaries and to reduce the impact of rising taxes. The Indian BPO companies are at an flexion point. The challenge for them is how to move from the tried and tested labour arbitrage model to value added services. More focus on domestic market will be seen and salary growth will obviously taper down to 10-12 % per annum from 18 % last year.

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PEAS TO LEAD TILL JAPAN TIE IS OVER

Sunday, 6th April, 2008

Leander Paes will continue as India’s Davis Cup captain, at least, for this year. S P Misra, the newly appointed manager after the unpleasant episodes of the last tie, said Paes would remain captain not just for the upcoming Japan tie but also if India win and play the next one in September.

The Indian camp was in trouble after Prakash Amritraj, Rohan Bopanna and Mahesh Bhupathi unanimously agreed not to play under Paes. Though Misra said the grievances of these players would be addressed in a meeting next month, the decision to keep Paes as the captain would not be changed for this year.

The All India Tennis Association joint-secretary, Bharat Oza from Mumbai and Bengal Tennis Association secretary Hironmoy Chatterjee will also be present at the proposed meeting.

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“Leander is an experienced player. We are going to keep him as captain for the year,” Misra told HT from Hyderabad. “There will be a meeting where we would hear the players’ complaints but if we win against Japan then Leander remains captain for the September tie too. We will see what next to do (about the captaincy) the next year.” Misra, however, said Paes was “too emotional” during the tie against Uzbekistan in February when he openly called Amritraj “unprofessional”.

Normally in Davis Cup teams, where you play for your country, such issues never take place. I think Leander was too emotional. It’s good when things stay inside the dressing room,” added Misra.

Asked about his new role - Misra is also the selection committee member - and how he will bring together a team marred by egos, Misra said: “I am in touch with all the players. We have been talking and the differences will be sorted out. “I’m going to try and create harmony in the team. I will keep the boys together while travelling and practicing.”

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Paes has been named the playing captain in the, second round Asia/Oceania Zone Group I tie against Japan. Meanwhile, Eiji Takeuchi will lead the Japan team along with Kei Nishikori, Go Soeda, Takao Suzuki and Satoshi Wabuchi.

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DREAMS SHATTERED

Sunday, 6th April, 2008

Another up move that flattered to deceive, the second in 2 months. All of us want to believe the worst is over, but the ticker simply refuses to oblige. Hopes are raised every time the Nifty pulls back towards the 5,000 mark and then there is despair as it fizzles out. Perhaps there are just too many headwinds at this point for the market to move ahead unfettered.

The biggest trigger for the recent sell-off is inflation. The inflation data and reactions from policy makers have left little room for doubt for the equity market that all hopes of interest rate cuts should be abandoned for the moment. In fact, many economists have begun talking about interest rate hikes, which would be disastrous for the stock market.

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Another up move that flattered to deceive, the second in 2 months. All of us want to believe the worst is over, but the ticker simply refuses to oblige. Hopes are raised every time the Nifty pulls back towards the 5,000 mark and then there is despair as it fizzles out. Perhaps there are just too many headwinds at this point for the market to move ahead unfettered.

The biggest trigger for the recent sell-off is inflation. The inflation data and reactions from policy makers have left little room for doubt for the equity market that all hopes of interest rate cuts should be abandoned for the moment. In fact, many economists have begun talking about interest rate hikes, which would be disastrous for the stock market.

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With this second failed attempt at 5,000, bulls will be very short on confidence. There was clear unwinding of long positions even as bears pounced on the weakness to open fresh shorts. Any further weakness in global markets this week would raise the odds of a retest of recent lows. The market has clearly not stabilised yet, at best it ill churning violently in a 500 point Nifty range. But it has been a month already in this broad range, about time it made a break in either direction.

Hopefully, there will not be any ICAI-led earnings disappointments, which force the market below the lower end of its range. Meanwhile, the prudent strategy remains the same: use panic days to buy into stock price aberrations for investors, with traders not taking large positional trades but sticking to scalping small gains whenever they get any within the extremities of this trading range.

 

 

AKSHAY DARED TO JOIN DEVILS

Sunday, 6th April, 2008

Akshay Kumar loves to talk in hyperbolic excess. “My name is Akshay Kumar Hari Om Bhatia, and I hail from Delhi’s Paranthe Wali Gali in Chandni Chowk,” he said, executing imaginary pulls, drives and cuts in a rhythm that matched his drawl. But when the setting and the occasion is such - it was the launch of Delhi Daredevils’ website and official clothing - showboating and hyperbole have to rule the roost. And who better to pull off the “act” than Hari Om Bhatia, brand partner of GMR Sports - owners of the Delhi IPL franchise.

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Emerging from the sudden darkness that descended upon the ritzy hall, Akshay, wearing a cricket helmet, was quick to take a trip down memory lane, reminiscing about his playing days at Lal Quila, before professing his loyalty towards his new “muse”- the Delhi Daredevils.

Perhaps it was fitting too that glamour transcended purpose as the four actual “Daredevils” who had turned up - Virender Sehwag, Gautam Gambhir, Mohammed Asif and Shoaib Malik - especially the last three, appeared fidgety as Akshay and Sehwag held sway. It was an apt reflection on how IPL has ripped through the very fabric of cricket that a thing as basic as unveiling of the uniform and website commanded so much media presence, and compelled the organizers to create a set more suitable for a Bollywood flick than for cricketing purposes.

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Hence it was no surprise that majority of the questions were thrown to Akshay and Sehwag as Gambhir, Asif, and Malik sat stone-faced by their side. In fact, it got to such a point that when a journalist finally put a question to Asif and Malik, it was Sehwag who was heaving a sigh of relief!