CONTROL INFLATION PLEASE!
Thursday, 8th May, 2008
The major challenge the Government o f India is facing today is the inflation. Though the growing economy of the country has withstood higher rates of inflation in the past and anything like 7.5% is not a great trouble if it did not precipitate even a higher rate of inflation tomorrow. Most importantly, there is no time for pulling each other’s leg as to who is responsible for this situation and who must accept the blame as is the situation in the political arena of the country.
The economic growth of the country and the welfare of common man have to suffer heavily if the situation remains the same. This crisis may turn uncontrollable if appropriate measures are not taken that too in timely fashion. RBI other than the measures like controlling liquidity and suppressing demand should look how to raise the confidence of the investor and reverse the expectations about continuing inflation.
The first cause which is constrained supply, which actually is controlling liquidity and managing the demand side, would definitely bring the prices down. This may also result in growth of output and employment. The RBI’s attempt to squeeze liquidity is a step in right direction. Rise in the CRR RATIO (cash reserve ratio) may affect the profitability of the banks where cash would have no returns. If your aim is to reduce expenditure, preferred option would be increase in the rate of interest; however, there should be policies to neutralize its effect on the increased inflow of foreign capital. The appreciation of rupee would cut down exports which in turn would result into downsizing and rising interest rates if RBI would not interfere to buy up dollars.
There is another policy which is often preferred over others- to control inflow of foreign funds. This can be done by either imposing a Tobin-type tax where taxes should be raised on short term capital gains. In financial management it is an art to fine tune the reducing of liquidity with no or minimal possible cost of output and employment.
In a country like India where economy is globalised, there should be a mechanism in existence which could protect against the sudden increase in the cost of essential goods and it should be regarded as indispensible component of public policy.

